Japan’s Metaplanet Doubles Down on Bitcoin Banking as Analysts Eye Deeper Correction
13.06.2026 - 13:13:21 | boerse-global.de
Bitcoin is stuck in a holding pattern near $63,500, nursing a roughly 28% loss from its May high. But beneath the surface, two very different stories are unfolding: institutional investors are pulling cash from exchange-traded products at breakneck speed, while a handful of corporate heavyweights are quietly positioning for the next cycle.
André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, points to weekly net outflows from Bitcoin ETPs of about $2 billion — equivalent to some 50,000 BTC hitting the market in a compressed timeframe. That institutional exodus, he argues, is the primary driver of the current price weakness, not any network issue or regulatory shock. Dragosch specifically distinguishes the ETP selling from the symbolic sale of 32 bitcoin by Strategy, calling the latter a non-event for price action.
The selling pressure has pushed Bitcoin’s relative strength index to 32.8, technically oversold territory. Yet Dragosch warns the floor may be lower still. He lays out three on-chain support zones below current levels: the 200-week moving average near $61,000 — already tested — the realized price around $56,000, and the long-term-holder cost basis at roughly $48,000. That last level represents his “max pain” scenario, with potential downside of up to 20% from here.
Galaxy Research’s head of research, Alex Thorn, is even more cautious. Only four of his firm’s 13 historical bottom-formation indicators have flashed buy signals so far. Galaxy’s base case pegs a possible trough between $40,000 and $46,000, arriving sometime before the fourth quarter of 2026. Thorn acknowledges that the classic 75–80% drawdowns from highs are becoming less likely as Bitcoin’s cyclical amplitude compresses, but from the current price, even Galaxy’s lower target implies another 35% decline.
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While institutional money heads for the exit, Japanese investment firm Metaplanet is charging in the opposite direction. The company, already the third-largest public bitcoin holder globally with over 40,000 coins, has agreed to acquire broker Siiibo Securities for $13.1 million. The deal, expected to close by July, brings a securities trading license that Metaplanet intends to use for launching interest-bearing Bitcoin products. CEO Simon Gerovich is targeting Japan’s vast pool of private savings, worth around $7.4 trillion, with Bitcoin-based financial services.
Across the Pacific, Michael Saylor’s Strategy continues its habitual two-step. After offloading 32 BTC at the end of May to fund a dividend payment, the firm quickly bought back in, adding more than $100 million worth of coins to its balance sheet. The net effect reinforces Strategy’s status as the largest corporate bitcoin holder, but the scale of its purchases has not been enough to offset the broader ETF-driven dumping.
Short-lived geopolitical optimism gave Bitcoin a brief lift on Friday, when rumors of a US-Iran ceasefire pushed the price to $64,349. The rally faded almost immediately. US spot ETFs alone recorded $405 million in outflows over the past week — a figure that, while lower than the global ETP total cited by Bitwise, underscores the persistent institutional skittishness.
Bitcoin at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Both Bitwise and Galaxy anchor their forecasts in the same analytical toolkit: on-chain cost structures and ETF flow dynamics. Where they part ways is on the precise location of the bottom. Yet they agree on one thing: it has not been reached yet. With Bitcoin still roughly 50% below its all-time high and historical corrections having been far steeper, the market may need to test deeper levels before the next genuine accumulation phase begins.
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