Kaspi.kz Acquisition Timeline Extended, Weighing on Expansion Strategy

The planned acquisition of Rabobank A.Ş. by Kaspi.kz has been postponed once more, with the Kazakh fintech giant now targeting a mid-2026 completion. This delay pushes back the company's anticipated expansion into the Turkish market and defers the realization of potential operational synergies, raising questions about its near-term strategic and financial trajectory.

The stock's technical picture presents conflicting signals. While a pivot-top formation was identified in early January, the 3-month MACD indicator is currently flashing a buy signal. This results in a mixed and indecisive short-term technical mood among traders.

Regarding share price performance, the equity is currently trading at €69.20. This places it approximately 35% below its 52-week high and reflects a loss of roughly 23% over a twelve-month horizon. These metrics underscore the market's cautious reaction to operational uncertainties and the postponed deal closure.

Recent data from the Kazakhstan Association of Minority Shareholders (QAMS) highlights a stark contrast. Kaspi.kz's market capitalization declined from USD 19.8 billion to USD 15.3 billion in 2025, equating to a 26% drop in share value. This occurred alongside a 26.4% increase in the market capitalization of the KASE Index over the same period. This divergence helps explain part of the pressure on the stock and the heightened scrutiny from investors.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Kaspi.kz?

Strategic Implications of the Delay

This latest schedule pushback slows Kaspi.kz's expansion blueprint for Turkey and postpones the point at which additional revenue streams and cost synergies are expected to materialize. Unlike the acquisition of Hepsiburada, which was finalized in January 2025, the Rabobank A.Ş. transaction represents a separate strategic initiative that has proven more complex to conclude than initially projected.

Concurrently, management had previously outlined a 2026 strategy balancing capital returns to shareholders with growth investments. This included a USD 100 million ADS buyback program and planned dividend distributions. The acquisition delay is therefore likely to impact earnings and liquidity planning in the short to medium term, as anticipated financial benefits will now commence later.

Key Dates and Forward Outlook

A significant upcoming milestone is firmly on the calendar: the Q4 2025 report, expected on March 1, 2026. This quarterly release is anticipated to provide clearer insights into the company's financial health, the specific size of the planned dividend, and the progress of the share repurchase initiative. It may also offer an updated timeline or further details regarding the Rabobank transaction. Until then, the protracted acquisition process remains the primary short-term uncertainty factor influencing the equity's valuation.