KNDS Posts Record €33.1bn Order Book as IPO Freeze Persists Over Valuation and Political Tensions
Published on 07/04/2026 at 20:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The paradox could hardly be sharper. KNDS, the Franco-German maker of Leopard 2 tanks and Caesar howitzers, sits on a record order backlog of €33.1bn and just posted a 16% rise in revenue to €4.4bn, yet its long-anticipated initial public offering remains firmly on ice. With an operating profit of €661m and a forecast of roughly 30% top-line growth by 2026, the company’s financial heft is not in doubt. The stumbling block is a widening chasm between what the owners want and what the market is willing to pay.
At the heart of the impasse is a valuation target north of €12bn – a figure that has already scuppered earlier listing attempts. The current market environment for European defence plays is brutal. Rheinmetall, a close partner, lost 19% in a single session last week after Germany shelved the F126 naval project. Shares of the Czechoslovak Group have plunged 57% since their January debut. Against that backdrop, institutional investors are balking at the demanded price, and the owners have concluded that now is not the time to push the button.
Berlin, however, is not waiting for the IPO calendar to clear. The German government is pressing ahead with its plan to restructure KNDS’s ownership, demanding a 40% stake that would be held via KfW. That would put Germany on a par with France, which would reduce its current 50% holding to an equal 40%. The remaining 20% is earmarked for free float once the listing eventually proceeds. For Berlin, the move is less about short-term market timing and more about securing strategic influence over a key defence supplier at a moment when European defence budgets are swelling.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying KNDS?
The corporate structure that will face public market investors is deliberately lopsided in favour of the two sovereign shareholders. With each state holding 40%, they jointly command a qualified majority, leaving private institutions with only a fifth of the equity and correspondingly limited sway over strategic decisions. That setup may deter some fund managers who prefer more influence, but it could also appeal to those seeking stability in a volatile sector.
None of this has slowed KNDS’s operational expansion. The company is converting a former railway wagon factory in Görlitz into a defence production site, upgrading tanks for international clients – Sweden recently took delivery of the first refurbished battle tanks – and pushing ahead with drone and unmanned systems development. All the paperwork for the IPO is ready; the roadshow materials are finalised. What is missing is a meeting of minds on price.
The owners have made clear they will not compromise on the €12bn-plus valuation, even if it means waiting months longer. The earliest window for a relaunch is now seen as September, provided the defence sector stabilises and investor appetite returns. Until then, KNDS will continue to churn out hardware and pile up orders, leaving the IPO suspended in a standoff between political urgency and market reality.
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