Lockup Overhang and Short Squeeze Risk Collide as SpaceX Stock Stays Grounded Near 52-Week Lows
Published on 07/16/2026 at 21:24 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX shares are treading water near all-time lows, caught between a record-breaking short seller windfall and a looming tidal wave of insider stock. The stock changed hands at $135.27 on Wednesday — just above its initial public offering price of $135 and a staggering 40% below the June 16 record of $225.64. In euro terms, the equity hovered at €115.24, a mere 0.82% above its 52-week trough.
The slide has been a bonanza for bears. Data provider Ortex Technologies estimates that short sellers are sitting on an unrealized profit of $8.7 billion, while TipRanks puts the short interest at roughly 185 million shares — about 29% of the free float. Adding to the tension, nearly half of all tradable shares are now out on loan, according to Ortex. Peter Hillerberg, co-founder of Ortex, described the action as “a roller-coaster for short sellers” that has decisively swung in their favor.
That concentrated short position cuts both ways. Every dollar move in the stock is worth more than $300 million to the short side, making a violent short squeeze a real possibility. But the immediate headwind for bulls is the imminent expiration of the lockup period. After SpaceX’s first-quarter earnings report — expected in early August — roughly 911.5 million shares worth about $123 billion will become eligible for sale. That would more than triple the current minuscule float, which represented less than 5% of total outstanding shares at the June IPO.
A secondary trigger could swell the supply further. Lockup terms stipulate that if the stock closes above $175.50 on at least five of ten trading days before the earnings release, another 455.8 million shares can be freed up. By December 8, as much as 40% of all SpaceX equity could be tradable. The remaining 60%, including Elon Musk’s 42% stake, remains locked until mid-2027.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Despite the price carnage, the analyst community remains overwhelmingly bullish. LSEG data shows 27 of 32 analysts rate the stock a buy, with a median target between $236 and $247. The most aggressive forecast comes from Raymond James’s Brian Gesuale, who sees the stock hitting $800 — a valuation of $8.7 trillion. Even JPMorgan’s Doug Anmuth and Needham’s analysts have reaffirmed buy ratings with targets of $225 and $250, respectively. On the bearish fringe, CFRA’s Keith Snyder rates SpaceX a sell with a $115 target, demanding tangible earnings rather than story-driven multiples, while Morningstar assigns a mere $63. Piper Sandler’s Alexander Potter initiated coverage with a neutral rating and a $156 target, arguing that the next twelve months offer little upside given expiring lockups and uncertainty around a potential Tesla takeover.
The financial pressures behind the selloff are real. SpaceX reported a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025 and another $4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2026. To fund its AI infrastructure ambitions, the company placed $25 billion in bonds in June. Those capital-intensive plans — Potter noted the investment required could run “easily into the tens, if not hundreds, of billions of dollars annually” — have rattled investors already nervous about Fed rate hikes and frothy valuations.
A potential bright spot came on July 16 with the 13th flight of Starship, the first since the IPO. The V3 vehicle lifted off from Starbase, Texas, carrying 20 Starlink V3 satellites, and focused on an orbit reignition, satellite deployment, and heat shield data. SpaceX has invested over $15 billion in Starship and holds a $4 billion NASA contract for a lunar landing by 2028. Meanwhile, Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, and new GPU-leasing deals with Anthropic and Google could boost total revenue from roughly $18 billion to as much as $62 billion next year.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Yet none of that growth narrative has been enough to offset the gravitational pull of the lockup and the heavy short interest. With 40% of the float short and a flood of insider shares weeks away, volatility is almost certain to persist — whatever the outcome of the next Starship test.
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SpaceX Stock: New Analysis - 16 July
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