LPKF Laser: Short Sellers Dig In Despite 312% Rally as LIDE Technology Hangs in the Balance
25.05.2026 - 13:12:40 | boerse-global.de
The great divide at LPKF Laser is growing. The stock has more than quadrupled since January, closing Monday at €27.30 – a single-day surge of 10% – yet short sellers are quietly increasing their bets against it. Voleon Capital Management raised its net short position to 1.81% of shares outstanding, up from 1.70%, while Marshall Wace is also reported to have grown its bearish exposure. The message from the short side is clear: gravity will eventually pull this rally back to earth.
The tension stems from a yawning gap between the story driving the share price and the reality on the ground. That story is LIDE, a patented process for precision machining of glass substrates that the semiconductor industry sees as a key enabler for next-generation chip packaging. Investors are betting that the current test and research projects will soon convert into volume production orders. But for now, the business is bleeding red ink.
First-quarter revenues fell to €17.1 million, a 32% drop from the €25.3 million posted a year earlier. The operating result came in at minus €6.9 million, and free cash flow was even worse at minus €7.6 million. The solar division, once a second pillar for the company, has all but stopped generating income under pressure from Chinese competitors and a tough macro environment. The "North Star" restructuring program – which includes consolidating welding and solar system production at the Suhl site – is adding costs that management estimates at 3% to 4% of annual revenue.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying LPKF Laser?
Yet the order book tells a different story. New orders reached €24.1 million in the first quarter, up 18% year on year, pushing the book-to-bill ratio to 1.4. In the electronics and development segments, demand is outstripping delivery capacity – an unusual signal for a company still reporting operating losses. That backlog gives the bulls something to point to. It also makes the short thesis more precarious: if LIDE-related orders start to materialize, covering those positions could fuel an even sharper squeeze.
The LIDE technology itself is no longer a lab curiosity. LPKF is expanding its portfolio with solutions for glass-based packaging and laser bonding of multilayer stacks. The explosion in artificial intelligence and power-hungry data centers is driving demand for more compact chip packages – precisely where LIDE fits. The inflection point, however, depends on customers completing qualification steps. A shift from pilot phases to serial production would validate the technology’s industrial relevance. Until then, the valuation is built almost entirely on hope.
Management is trying to instill confidence. CEO Dr. Klaus Fiedler recently bought shares on the open market, a classic insider vote of trust. And at the annual general meeting in June, shareholders will vote on a supervisory board candidate with deep semiconductor roots: Dr. Arne Schneider, the CEO of Elmos Semiconductor. The board is clearly aligning itself with the chip industry strategy that LIDE represents.
For the full year 2026, LPKF expects revenue between €105 million and €120 million, with an adjusted EBIT margin ranging from minus 3% to plus 4.5%. Crucially, that guidance excludes any potential large orders from advanced semiconductor packaging. The hoped-for breakthrough hinges entirely on the qualification progress made by end customers. Short sellers are betting that process stalls. The rally is betting it accelerates. One of them will be wrong.
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LPKF Laser Stock: New Analysis - 25 May
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