Mercedes-Benz Stock Teeters at Annual Low as Labour Unrest and China Pressure Mount Ahead of July Earnings
29.06.2026 - 05:11:16 | boerse-global.de
Mercedes-Benz shares are clinging to the edge of a fresh 52-week trough, with the stock closing at €43.27 on Friday — a mere 0.62% above the year’s floor of €43.01 set on 26 June. The equity has shed nearly 30% since the start of 2026, and the next catalyst for a potential reversal is still a month away: the Q2 interim report due on 28 July.
Behind the slide sits a deepening cost-cutting drive that has ignited a confrontation with the workforce. Mercedes-Benz plans to defer a bonus payment known as the "transformation component" — equivalent to 18.4% of a monthly salary — from July 2026 to 2027 for its 90,000 German employees. Simultaneously, management intends to lift the working week from 35 to 40 hours without any wage adjustment. The company cites structural cost pressures and the imperative to maintain international competitiveness. Works councils have already signalled resistance, raising the prospect of industrial action in the months ahead.
The stock’s technical picture looks equally bleak. Mercedes-Benz is trading more than 11% below its 50-day moving average and roughly 21% beneath the 200-day line. The relative strength index has sunk to 29.2, deep in oversold territory, yet no clear catalyst has emerged to spark a rebound. Compounding the weakness, the group completed its 2025/2026 share buyback programme on 1 June, having repurchased some 37.6 million shares at an average price of €53.19 — well above current levels. The total outlay was nearly €2 billion. With the buyback now concluded and the statutory closed period running from 28 June until the Q2 release, the company cannot support its own stock through open market purchases.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Mercedes-Benz?
On the operating front, the numbers offer little comfort. First-quarter revenue came in at €31.6 billion with EBIT of €1.9 billion. The adjusted return on sales in the passenger car division was 4.1%, a level management said was in line with the full-year forecast, but a far cry from historical highs. In China, Mercedes-Benz sold 27% fewer vehicles year-on-year during the first quarter, caught in a brutal price war, high production costs, and the expensive transition to electric mobility. That drag is unlikely to have eased in Q2.
Additional headwinds are gathering from Brussels. The European Commission is examining extra tariffs on Chinese plug-in hybrids, and retaliation from Beijing could directly target high-margin export models such as the S-Class, which have long been a profit engine for the Stuttgart-based automaker.
Analyst sentiment reflects the uncertainty. Bernstein Research maintains a "Market-Perform" rating with a price target of €61, implying significant upside from current levels. Kepler Cheuvreux is less optimistic: it cut its target from €57 to €48, citing gloomy margin and earnings prospects, while keeping a "Hold" stance. For now, management has reaffirmed its full-year guidance — revenue in line with the prior year and group EBIT significantly above the 2025 figure. The market will test that confidence when Mercedes-Benz publishes its second-quarter numbers and hosts an analyst call on 28 July.
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