Metaplanet Shares Under Pressure from Bitcoin Downturn

Metaplanet is facing significant headwinds as the new trading year begins. The company's stock, which has a substantial reliance on cryptocurrency, is bracing for a volatile start to 2026 following a sharp decline in the price of Bitcoin. The equity last closed at 405 yen, a level under threat as the value of its underlying Bitcoin holdings remains deeply negative.

A key metric for investors, the ratio of market capitalization to net asset value (mNAV), has fallen from 1.17 to 1.03. This decline reflects the recent expansion of the Bitcoin treasury and the subsequent drop in BTC's market price. The stock is now trading close to the pure value of its Bitcoin reserves, indicating that the previous premium attributed to its operational business has largely evaporated. This shift suggests growing hesitation, particularly among institutional investors.

Unrealized Losses on Expanded Bitcoin Holdings

The current tension stems from Metaplanet's committed "Bitcoin First" strategy. The firm significantly increased its BTC holdings in the fourth quarter of 2025, cementing its position as one of the larger corporate holders of the cryptocurrency.

Key treasury figures include:

• Total Holdings: 35,102 BTC
• Q4 2025 Purchases: 4,279 BTC
• Average Q4 Purchase Price: Approximately $105,412 per Bitcoin
• Current Market Price: Around $87,400 per Bitcoin

With an average total cost basis of roughly $107,606 per Bitcoin, the company is sitting on an estimated unrealized loss of $520.34 million. As long as the market price stays below this average entry point, the accounting value of its crypto treasury remains under pressure.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Metaplanet?

Price Action and Technical Positioning

In the last trading session, Metaplanet shares declined by 7.95% to close at 405 yen. This drop followed Bitcoin's break below the $90,000 threshold. Over a five-day period, the stock's losses now total approximately 14%, effectively erasing gains made in the first half of December.

The 405 yen zone is currently viewed as a critical technical level. Market participants see it as a neutral area that is only narrowly being defended. A sustained move below this support could trigger further selling, potentially targeting the 380 yen region. Any meaningful recovery for the stock is now contingent not only on share purchases but, more importantly, on a significant rebound in the broader cryptocurrency market.

Outlook for the Trading Week

The immediate direction for Metaplanet's share price is directly tied to Bitcoin's performance ahead of the Tokyo exchange's reopening. The company recently structured its expansion through the issuance of 23.6 million MERCURY Class B preferred shares and additional debt financing. While this provides more capital for expanding its Bitcoin position, it also increases the leverage and risk exposure to BTC's price fluctuations.

All eyes are now on Bitcoin's ability to reclaim the $88,000 level. If BTC fails to recover this price point before trading commences in Tokyo, the likelihood increases that Metaplanet's stock will test new lows at the week's open.