Micron's Texas Wafer Deal Meets a Three-Way HBM4 Race as the Stock Digests a 23% Peak-to-Trough Slide
Published on 07/10/2026 at 12:06 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Micron Technology finds itself pulled in two directions this week. On one side, a $500 million supply-chain investment in Texas bolstered the bull case for domestic chip manufacturing. On the other, Nvidia's confirmation that three memory suppliers will share HBM4 business on the upcoming Vera Rubin platform — rather than a single exclusive partner — triggered a reassessment of the stock's premium valuation.
The tension played out in the session-to-session price action. Shares surged as much as 6% on Thursday after Micron disclosed it would provide $500 million to GlobalWafers to expand its silicon wafer facility in Sherman, Texas, as part of a broader commitment of up to $3 billion to secure U.S.-based supply chains. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick praised the move for strengthening America's position in a "vitally important sector." But the rally faded on Friday, with the stock closing at €841.50, down 2.96% on the session and 23.76% below the all-time high of €1,103.80 reached on June 25.
The catalyst for the reversal? A deepening reality check on the competitive landscape for high-bandwidth memory. At the start of June, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang confirmed that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron had all passed certification for HBM4 memory, which will power Nvidia's upcoming Vera Rubin AI platform. That was good news — but not exclusive news. Industry estimates suggest SK Hynix will capture roughly 60–70% of the Vera Rubin allocation, Samsung about 25–30%, and Micron the remainder. The narrative of a scarce, high-margin memory monopoly has given way to a triopoly.
Making matters more acute for Micron's stock, SK Hynix this week began trading directly on the Nasdaq, giving U.S. investors their first uncomplicated route into the HBM volume leader. The listing pulls capital that previously had almost nowhere else to flow in the HBM space but toward Micron.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Micron?
None of this changes the underlying operating strength. Micron reported third-quarter revenue of $41.4 billion, a 345% year-over-year explosion, and management guided for fourth-quarter revenue of $50 billion with gross margins approaching 86%. The market for high-performance memory remains tight through at least 2027, with analysts forecasting supply bottlenecks. Yet the stock is now trading roughly 20% below its peak, and the annualized 30-day volatility has hit nearly 110%.
Insider selling has added noise to the narrative. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra sold shares on May 1, May 29, and June 26, 2026, at prices ranging from about $1,170 to $1,193 per share. Those transactions, however, were executed through a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan established on January 30, 2026 — well before the stock entered its parabolic phase — and therefore carry no meaningful signal about Mehrotra's current view of the business. The average analyst price target stands at €1,299.14, more than 54% above Friday's close.
Technically, the stock is hovering just 4.79% above its 50-day moving average of €803, and the 14-day relative strength index at 47.5 indicates a shift from euphoria to indecision rather than outright bearishness. The premium to the 200-day average is still 105.70%.
Micron at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
What is unfolding is not a repudiation of Micron's business but a capital rotation within the broader AI trade, amplified by a genuine broadening of competition. Memory is no longer a cyclical commodity; it is critical AI infrastructure, and Micron remains one of a very small number of qualified suppliers at the cutting edge. But that story now comes with a price tag that reflects three suppliers, not one, and a direct competitor trading in dollars on a U.S. exchange.
Whether the market reads the current pullback as a healthy pause within a structural transformation or as the first crack in a valuation that ran too far ahead of reality will hinge on how quickly the new Texas wafers translate into actual production — and how much of the HBM4 pie Micron can eventually claim.
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