Microsoft Rethinks Its OpenAI Bet: Capped Revenue, New Partners, and a $1 Billion Acquisition in the Works
Published on 05/14/2026 at 13:13 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The Microsoft-Aktie story is increasingly one of contradiction: the operating picture sparkles, yet the share price languishes. The software giant notched another earnings beat in its third fiscal quarter, with EPS rising to $4.27 and total revenue climbing 18% year-over-year, powered by Azure's 39% constant-currency surge and a Copilot user base that has swelled to 20 million. But at €346 to €347.75, the stock has shed roughly 14% since January and trades well below its 200-day moving average — a gap that some analysts now frame as a buying opportunity.
Against that backdrop, Microsoft has quietly rewritten the terms of its relationship with OpenAI. A new agreement caps the revenue-sharing payments Microsoft can receive from the startup at $38 billion through 2030, a figure far lower than earlier market expectations. Wedbush analysts welcomed the move, arguing it removes uncertainty around how Azure services monetize. In exchange, OpenAI sheds its exclusivity — it can now rent computing from rivals like Amazon and Google — while Microsoft secures extended intellectual property rights that allow it to use OpenAI’s models until 2032.
The reshuffled pact is only one piece of a broader push to diversify Microsoft’s AI dependencies. The company is in advanced talks to acquire Inception, a Stanford University spin-off developing advanced language models, at a valuation exceeding $1 billion. Microsoft’s venture arm, M12, had already invested in the startup in late 2025. The move follows the collapse of a deal to buy AI developer Cursor, which fell apart over regulatory concerns tied to GitHub Copilot; SpaceX subsequently snapped up that partnership instead.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Microsoft?
The scale of Microsoft’s commitment to OpenAI was laid bare in recent court testimony. Manager Michael Wetter confirmed total spending has exceeded $100 billion, with some $30 billion in AI-related revenue flowing back to the company since 2023. That hefty upfront cost is now yielding a growing backlog: $627 billion in contracted future revenue underpins the long-term outlook.
Wall Street remains broadly bullish. Phillip Securities upgraded the stock to “Buy” on May 13 with a $485 price target, while Wedbush and Citigroup reiterated positive ratings — the latter calling for $620, one of the highest on the Street. The average analyst target hovers near $569, and the current price-to-earnings ratio of 24 sits well below Microsoft’s historical average.
Institutional investors have used the dip to build positions. Aspiring Ventures boosted its stake by nearly 160%, and both Revisor Wealth Management and Krilogy Financial added shares in the first quarter. Insider activity offers a more nuanced signal: Vice President Hogan sold stock at an average of $409 in March, while Director Stanton bought at around $397 in February.
For income-focused shareholders, the near-term reward is a quarterly dividend of $0.91 per share, confirmed for an ex-dividend date of May 21, 2026. The payout is modest relative to the stock’s decline, but with Azure still growing at nearly 40% and Copilot adoption accelerating, the bull case rests on the idea that operational momentum will eventually catch up with the share price.
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