Microsoft’s AI Bifurcation: New Copilot Pricing and a Nvidia-Powered PC Push Aim to Arrest a 30% Rout
12.06.2026 - 13:04:41 | boerse-global.de
Microsoft’s stock is trapped in a bearish rut even as its core businesses accelerate. The shares change hands at €339.30 in Frankfurt, almost 29% below the all-time high of over €478 touched last October. Year?to?date the stock has lost roughly 16% of its value, trading beneath the 200?day moving average of around €389. The Relative Strength Index sits at 39.2, flirting with oversold territory after a six?month slide that has left many investors questioning the market’s faith in the company’s artificial?intelligence narrative.
Yet inside the Redmond campus, two distinct strategic pushes are taking shape – one financial, one technological – that could change the conversation around Microsoft’s monetisation of AI.
BNP Paribas has fired a bullish salvo, reiterating an outperform rating and a $555 price target. Analyst Stefan Slowinski points to the soaring demand for Microsoft’s Copilot assistant. More than 25 million Copilot licences are expected to be in place by the end of the current fiscal quarter, a number underscored by a landmark deployment at the UK’s National Health Service. Crucially, Microsoft is shifting the Copilot pricing model away from a pure subscription and toward a hybrid that includes usage?based fees. The aim is to capture far more value from heavy AI users, a move BNP believes can re?rate the shares dramatically.
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On the hardware front, the company is leaning into a powerful new alliance. At the Computex trade show, Nvidia chief Jensen Huang unveiled the “RTX Spark” chip, a compact AI super?processor built on Arm architecture in collaboration with MediaTek and Microsoft. The chip will power a fresh wave of Windows laptops, including Microsoft’s own “Surface Laptop Ultra” with up to 128 gigabytes of memory, and devices from ASUS, Dell and Lenovo. These machines are designed to run personal AI assistants locally, reducing reliance on cloud connectivity. The initiative is a direct response to a two?percent decline in Windows licence and device revenue last quarter – a drag on an otherwise blistering performance.
Financially, the group remains on a formidable trajectory. Third?quarter revenue rose 18.3% to just under $83 billion, driven by a 40% surge in Azure cloud sales. Annualised AI revenue has already reached $37 billion. The company returned $12.7 billion to shareholders in dividends and buybacks during the same period. Yet the market has largely ignored this momentum, demanding hard proof that the new AI?powered PCs will actually revive the “More Personal Computing” segment before awarding a premium.
The next inflection point comes on 30 June, when Microsoft closes its fiscal year. That quarterly report will need to show that both the usage?based Copilot pivot and the Nvidia?backed hardware offensive are translating into tangible earnings – and that the disconnect between operational health and stock price is finally narrowing.
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