Nebius Faces a $20 Billion Reality Check as Margins Finally Turn Positive
Published on 04/24/2026 at 00:00 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers are staggering by any measure. A contracted backlog approaching $50 billion. GPU rental prices climbing 24% in a single month. Capacity sold out through mid-2026. And yet, when Nebius Group reports quarterly earnings on April 29, the market's focus will be less on the top-line potential and more on whether the company can actually execute on its audacious expansion plans without burning through its balance sheet.
Pricing Power Drives a Structural Shift
The fourth quarter of 2025 marked a genuine inflection point. Nebius posted a positive adjusted EBITDA margin of 7% for the first time, with its core cloud-AI segment expanding margins from 19% in Q3 to 24% in Q4. Operating cash flow for that quarter alone hit $834 million.
The engine behind this improvement is pricing leverage. Hourly rates for Nvidia's B200 GPUs climbed from roughly $4.40 to an average of $5.09, with peak pricing exceeding $6.00. The B200 rental index surged 24% in March 2026 alone. For longer-term contracts, average prices jumped more than 50% — a structural margin tailwind that flows directly to the bottom line. Both B200 and GB200 hardware are now sold out through mid-2026, with Nvidia carrying a backlog of roughly 3.6 million units.
A $50 Billion Backlog and a $20 Billion Build-Out
Nebius has been on a deal-making spree that would make any hyperscaler envious. In September 2025, the company signed a five-year contract with Microsoft worth up to $19.4 billion. Three months later, Meta came in with a $3 billion commitment, which the social media giant expanded to as much as $27 billion in March 2026. Combined, these agreements give Nebius a contracted backlog of nearly $50 billion spanning 2027 through 2031 — against just $530 million in revenue for fiscal 2025.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?
The challenge is scaling fast enough to capture that revenue. Nebius ended 2025 with seven data centers and plans to reach 16 by year-end 2026. Nine new facilities have been announced across the US and Europe, with more than 2 gigawatts of contracted capacity secured and a target of exceeding 3 gigawatts. The company's capacity is slated to expand from 170 megawatts at the end of 2025 to between 800 megawatts and 1 gigawatt by year-end.
Management has guided for 2026 revenue of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion, an annualized run rate of $7 billion to $9 billion, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of roughly 40%.
The Debt Dilemma
That level of growth comes at a steep price. Nebius ended 2025 with $3 billion in cash but plans capital expenditures of $16 billion to $20 billion in 2026 alone. A $4.34 billion convertible bond offering is expected to cover roughly 60% of this year's capital needs. The company took on $8.3 billion in debt in March following the Meta deal — more than tripling its liabilities from year-end 2025.
The net loss widened 87% last year to $447 million. CoreWeave, Nebius' primary competitor, lost $1.2 billion — more in absolute terms but less relative to its revenue base. CoreWeave currently generates roughly ten times Nebius' annual revenue, though it grows more slowly. Analysts expect CoreWeave to post 143% revenue growth in 2026 and 89% in 2027, while the consensus for Nebius stands at 523% and 206%, respectively.
Analyst Sentiment and the Valuation Debate
Goldman Sachs raised its price target by $45 to $205 after the Meta deal, boosting revenue estimates for 2027 through 2030 by 30% to 54%. Of the analysts covering Nebius, 27 rate it a buy, with price targets ranging from $143 to $211. The stock currently trades around $164. Wolfe Research initiated coverage with a "Peer Perform" rating, citing execution risks.
Nebius at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The valuation debate centers on whether Nebius' implied premium is justified. Its enterprise value is roughly half of CoreWeave's, even though CoreWeave is expected to generate nearly four times the revenue this year. That premium can only hold if Nebius converts its backlog into actual revenue and scales its data center capacity as planned.
Alger Capital highlighted Nebius in its first-quarter 2026 investor letter as a notable contributor, pointing to the company's first-ever positive adjusted net income as a milestone. Whether that marks the beginning of sustainable profitability or proves to be an outlier will become clearer when the April 29 numbers land.
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Nebius Stock: New Analysis - 24 April
Fresh Nebius information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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