Nebius Has the Orders, the Partners, and the Capital — Can It Deliver on Wednesday?

Wall Street is leaning bullish on Nebius Group just hours before the company reports first-quarter earnings, with Bank of America lifting its price target to $205 a share from $175 and reiterating a buy rating. The revised target implies roughly 16% upside from Monday’s closing price of around $177. Yet the optimism hinges on the same volatile variable that will define Wednesday’s pre-market release: whether Nebius can convert its staggering order book into accelerating revenue without stumbling under the weight of its own ambition.

The market sees a dramatic revenue inflection taking shape. Analysts expect Nebius to post sales of roughly $317 million for the first quarter of 2026, a leap from $228 million in the prior quarter. The net loss is projected at $0.81 per share — a figure the company has effectively flagged as part of a deliberate investment cycle that will keep operating income in the red for the full year. The focus, instead, is on the pace of capacity expansion and the strength of pre-committed demand.

That demand is underpinned by an accumulated contracted backlog of nearly $50 billion. The largest piece is a five-year deal with Meta Platforms valued at $27 billion for dedicated AI infrastructure capacity. A multi-year tie-up with Microsoft adds up to $19.4 billion. Nvidia has also thrown its weight behind Nebius with a $2 billion equity investment in March, a concrete signal that the chipmaker sees the Dutch-listed cloud provider as a strategic pillar for training and inference workloads. More recently, Nebius agreed to acquire the startup Eigen AI for roughly $643 million to deepen its managed inference capabilities.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?

All of these bets tie into a capital spending plan of staggering proportions. For 2026, Nebius has earmarked between $16 billion and $20 billion in capital expenditure, with roughly 60% of that sum expected to be funded by customer prepayments. The remainder will come from equity and debt. The company’s long-term ambition is to reach an annualized revenue run rate of up to $9 billion by the end of the year, up from just $1.25 billion at the start of 2026. Full-year revenue guidance sits at $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion, compared with $530 million in the prior fiscal year.

On the ground, the buildout is accelerating. Nebius aims to have up to one gigawatt of connected capacity by year-end and has raised its target for contracted power capacity to more than three gigawatts. A cornerstone of this expansion is a new 300-megawatt facility in Vineland, New Jersey, which serves as a hub for the Microsoft partnership. Existing sites in Europe and Israel are also being scaled up.

The risks, however, are as large as the numbers. Any delay in construction or shift in demand from hyperscale cloud customers could directly hit the financing model. The current market capitalization stands at about $45 billion, and the stock trades at a price-to-earnings multiple of 364 — far above the five-year median of 28. That premium reflects expectations that are anything but conservative. Wednesday’s results will offer the first hard check on whether Nebius can keep the pace required to validate its own guidance and the Street’s conviction.

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Nebius Stock: New Analysis - 12 May

Fresh Nebius information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

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