Nebius Insiders Sell $143 Million in Shares, but Institutions Keep Piling In
Published on 07/13/2026 at 07:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The tug-of-war at Nebius Group has rarely been more visible. Over the past three months, company insiders sold 685,822 shares worth $143.15 million — a sum that roughly equals the stock’s entire market cap bump from a single day’s rally. Yet institutional investors are moving in the opposite direction. Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group boosted its stake by 74.9% to 517,317 shares valued at about $53.7 million, while the Royal Bank of Canada and Millennium Management built new positions worth $1.63 million and $11.56 million, respectively. The divergence sets the stage for a stock that is simultaneously loved and doubted.
The sharpest test of that divide came on July 1, when reports surfaced that Meta Platforms — a cornerstone customer with a five-year, $27 billion compute agreement signed in March — was building its own cloud business to sell excess AI capacity. The Nebius share price cratered 17% in a single session, as investors priced in the risk of a client morphing into a competitor. The panic was short-lived. Research firm SemiAnalysis soon pushed back, arguing that Meta’s accelerating AI ambitions would actually deepen its reliance on external infrastructure partners. The stock clawed back some ground, but remains 26% below the 52-week high of €261 hit on June 22.
Underpinning the volatility is a business that is growing at a pace few tech companies have matched. First-quarter revenue surged 684% year over year to $399 million, crushing analyst expectations, while adjusted EBITDA swung from a loss of $54 million to a profit of $130 million. The company’s full-year guidance of $3 billion to $3.4 billion in revenue — up from $529.8 million last year — reflects a demand curve that CEO Arkady Volozh describes simply as “demand outstripping supply.” Rental prices for H100 graphics processors climbed 40% between October and March, reinforcing the narrative of a capacity crunch.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?
Nebius has locked up those supply advantages with deal-making that extends beyond Meta. In January, it won a contract with the Israel Innovation Authority to build a national supercomputer. In March, Nvidia invested $2 billion in the company, securing early access to its next-generation chip architectures. These agreements help explain how the company has built a market capitalization of roughly €48.84 billion — a stunning ascent from the 52-week low of €43.40 recorded on July 22 last year.
Yet the stock’s technical picture suggests the path forward will remain choppy. At €193, the shares trade 2% below the 50-day moving average of €196.93, but still 63.74% above the 200-day average of €117.87. The annualized 30-day volatility sits at 99.24%, a level that makes daily swings of 5% or more almost routine. The relative strength index of 46.6 signals a neutral market, while short interest of 20.13% of the float shows plenty of bears still betting against the rally.
Analysts are split on where the stock goes next. The consensus from 15 brokerages is “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $203.25, but the range is unusually wide. Citigroup leads the bulls with a $287 target, while Cantor Fitzgerald is the most cautious at $129. DA Davidson holds a “Neutral” rating with a $250 target, and Wolfe Research rates the shares “Peer Perform.” Meanwhile, insider selling has been concentrated in senior management: Chief Revenue Officer Marc Boroditsky sold 10,776 shares at $276.20 on June 2, and Chief Technology Officer Danila Shtan disposed of 16,937 shares at $235.45 on July 1.
For investors tracking the AI infrastructure trade, Nebius has become a real-time barometer of sentiment. The stock has gained 152.29% since the start of the year and 332.74% over the past 12 months — figures that underscore the immense demand for compute capacity. But the 17% one-day plunge on a single competitive scare, together with persistent insider selling, serves as a reminder that even the fastest-growing names in this space are not bulletproof. Institutional buyers, however, appear willing to look through the noise, betting that the capacity shortage — and the revenue visibility it creates — will outlast the headlines.
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