Nebius Rallies on Huang's Praise and Aschenbrenner's $2.6B Bet, But Insider Sales and Rich P/ E Cloud Outlook
01.06.2026 - 14:52:48 | boerse-global.de
A wave of powerful endorsements has propelled Nebius Group to a record high, but a torrent of insider selling and a pricey valuation are complicating the narrative. The stock closed at $229.50 on May 31, up roughly 475% over the past year and more than triple since January, after a string of catalysts triggered fresh buying.
The latest spark came from a regulatory filing revealing that Leopold Aschenbrenner's hedge fund, Situational Awareness LP, now owns a 5.6% stake — 12.4 million Class A shares worth about $2.6 billion at recent prices. The position, which did not appear in the fund's last 13F filing covering March 31, makes Nebius its largest single equity holding, ahead of CoreWeave and Bloom Energy. The disclosure sent shares surging 12% in premarket trading. Situational Awareness has swelled from $225 million under management to $13.7 billion in less than two years, with some core positions advancing between 100% and 800%.
Days earlier, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang had taken the stage at Computex and publicly hailed Nebius as an "incredibly fast-growing" force in global AI infrastructure. The commendation was not without financial backing: Nvidia invested $2 billion in Nebius back in March, and the two companies aim to deploy more than 5 gigawatts of Nvidia computing systems through Nebius' platform by the end of 2030. The stock promptly touched a 52-week high of $233.73.
The operating numbers give the hype some foundation. Nebius reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $399 million, a 684% surge year on year and comfortably above the $375 million consensus estimate. The loss per share came in at $0.23, far better than the expected $0.77. Annualized revenue is approaching $2 billion, and management has guided for an ARR between $7 billion and $9 billion by the end of 2026. The cloud segment alone grew 841% in the quarter.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?
But growth at this scale is expensive. Nebius has lifted its 2026 capital expenditure plan to between $20 billion and $25 billion, up from an earlier range of $16 billion to $20 billion. Total liabilities stand at roughly $8 billion, and analysts do not expect a positive adjusted operating result before the first quarter of 2027 — later than previously assumed. Margin pressure could intensify in the second quarter as spending on data center expansion accelerates.
The deal pipeline is nonetheless formidable. Nebius has built a contracted backlog worth approximately $46 billion, anchored by a $27 billion AI infrastructure agreement with Meta Platforms, including $12 billion in committed computing capacity through 2027, and a $17.4 billion deal with Microsoft running until 2031. Other clients include Shopify, Revolut, and Cursor. The market capitalization now sits at around $58 billion.
Analyst opinions are splitting. Citigroup lifted its price target from $169 to $287 and reiterated a Buy rating, while Citizens JMP set a target of $270. But D.A. Davidson downgraded Nebius from Buy to Neutral, keeping its target at $250, arguing that while the company deserves a premium, the current share price limits near-term upside. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings multiple of 72.6, roughly 2.5 times the industry average of 29.
Nebius at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Insider activity is providing a contrapuntal note. Between May 15 and May 22, executives and directors sold shares worth more than $122.8 million. Chief Infrastructure Officer Andrey Korolenko unloaded 500,000 shares at an average of $203.24, and CEO Arkadiy Volozh disposed of about 33,000 shares in April at $103.73. The company attributed the transactions to tax obligations tied to equity compensation. Short interest stood at nearly 18% in mid-May.
For now, the market is betting that Nebius' breakneck expansion will eventually justify the multiple. The annualized revenue growth projections of 233% between 2025 and 2028, alongside an expected 187% compounded EBITDA expansion after profitability in 2026, are ambitious — leaving little room for operational stumbles. Whether the data center buildout stays on schedule and whether Huang offers further details on the collaboration from Computex will help determine if the rally has more runway or is due for a breather.
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