Nebius Shares Slide as Investors Weigh Capital Structure Risks Against $50 Billion Order Book
Published on 07/29/2026 at 05:30 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nebius Group shares extended their recent downturn on Tuesday, closing at €148.90 after a 9.77% decline that brought the week's total loss to 22.12% and the monthly drop to 34.92%. The stock now sits 42.95% below its 52-week high of €261.00 reached in June, though it remains 239.95% higher than twelve months ago.
No single catalyst triggered the latest sell-off. Instead, a cluster of concerns around the company's financing strategy has coalesced into mounting investor unease. At the heart of the debate lies a fundamental tension: Nebius is pursuing a capital-intensive expansion plan that envisions spending between $20 billion and $25 billion on infrastructure this year, while simultaneously forecasting revenue of just $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion. In the first quarter alone, capital expenditures hit $2.47 billion — 6.2 times quarterly revenue.
The AI cloud provider's first-quarter results showed revenue surging 841% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 45%, but depreciation on fixed assets consumed 53% of group revenue, producing an operating loss of $128 million. That gap between growth velocity and actual profitability is what investors are now scrutinizing.
The Asset-Light Promise and Its Skeptics
Management has pitched an "asset-light" partnership model as the solution, arguing that external investors will fund new data center construction rather than Nebius bearing the full burden. CEO Arkady Volozh has framed the shift as a way to broaden customer access while improving margins. But the model remains largely undefined: no partner names have been disclosed, no capacity figures shared, no revenue-sharing terms clarified, and no updated 2026 capex guidance provided.
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A $775 million credit facility led by Japan's MUFG, secured against already-deployed GPU infrastructure and cash flows from an investment-grade client, offers some near-term support. The facility carries an interest rate of SOFR plus 250 basis points. Yet the broader financing picture looks stretched: Nebius ended the first quarter with $9.30 billion in cash against $8.45 billion in debt, and the company's updated capex guidance signals an enormous remaining funding requirement.
Adding to the anxiety, on July 27 the company renewed an existing authorization to issue up to 20% new Class A shares. The authorization is permissive rather than mandatory — it allows issuance without requiring it — but the market has reacted with unusual sensitivity to the distinction. The relative strength index now sits at 38.3, approaching oversold territory but not yet there, suggesting selling pressure may not be exhausted.
Bull Case: Demand Still Outruns Supply
Optimists point to the order book as the counterargument. Nebius carries a contracted revenue pipeline of roughly $50 billion, including a $1 billion deal with Reflection AI. Reports also point to substantial infrastructure agreements with Microsoft and Meta, with contracted revenue from those hyperscalers alone exceeding $40 billion over the life of the agreements.
Nvidia, which holds a 9.3% stake in Nebius following a $2 billion investment, provides additional validation from the chipmaker's perspective. The MUFG facility is structured so that collateral covers more than 100% of the required investment, which supporters argue demonstrates the underlying quality of Nebius's assets and customer base.
Despite the recent turbulence, the stock still trades 22.16% above its 200-day moving average — a technical signal that the long-term uptrend remains intact for now. Analysts remain broadly positive, though their targets diverge widely: Baird rates the stock an outperform with a $250 price target, while Northland is far more bullish at $410.
Bear Case: Capital Needs May Outpace Transparency
The bearish camp focuses on execution risk and capital intensity. With $8.5 billion in debt already on the balance sheet and a capex program that could reach $25 billion this year, the financing burden is enormous. The business model depends on sustained GPU pricing power and long hardware lifecycles — neither of which is guaranteed. Even moderate pricing pressure on compute capacity could hit earnings and free cash flow hard, particularly given the company's reliance on external funding.
Sector-wide headwinds are compounding the pressure. Reports that Meta Platforms plans to market excess AI compute capacity through its own cloud business have repeatedly triggered sell-offs in Nebius and competitor CoreWeave. Each attempted recovery has so far met fresh selling pressure. Rotation out of AI infrastructure names, amplified by concerns about Chinese competition in memory chips and rising hyperscaler investment budgets, has weighed on the entire subsector.
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Insider sales have added another layer of uncertainty. Both Volozh and a board member have recently sold share parcels — interpreted by some market participants as a warning signal, though others view it as routine portfolio rebalancing following the stock's dramatic rally.
The August 25 Vote That Could Shape the Next Phase
The next concrete milestone comes on August 25, 2026, when Nebius Group N.V. holds its annual general meeting in Amsterdam. Shareholders will vote on approving the 2025 financial statements, discharging the board, and authorizing the supervisory board for one year to issue or repurchase up to 20% of Class A capital, including the option to exclude preemptive rights.
That vote has not yet taken place. Its outcome will signal whether management secures formal flexibility to issue new shares — and will offer the first clear indication of how Nebius intends to fund a capex program that could reach $25 billion. If the asset-light model remains undefined and dilution concerns intensify, the stock could test lower support levels near its 100-day moving average. But as long as the $50 billion order book holds, the long-term trend above the 200-day average should keep optimists engaged — even if near-term volatility persists.
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Nebius Stock: New Analysis - 29 July
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