Nebius’ Twin Strategies for AI Infrastructure: Lending Against GPUs While Handing the Keys to Partners
Published on 07/20/2026 at 18:52 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nebius investors have endured a bewildering ride. The stock hit a 52-week high of €261 in June, then shed nearly 40% of its value in the weeks that followed. At €157.78 in pre-market trading on the latest session, the shares sit 39.55% below that peak and have lost 35.91% over the past month alone. Yet anyone who bought a year ago still sits on a 261.70% gain — a split personality that sums up the AI infrastructure sector’s manic mood.
The nosedive since mid-June reflects more than sector-wide jitters. Two major strategic moves by Nebius have redefined how the company plans to finance and scale its business, and the market is still weighing which will prove the bigger catalyst. On July 15, the company unveiled an “asset-light” model under which partners will finance and operate data centres while Nebius supplies the hardware design, software stack and customer network. Days earlier, on July 14, it signed a $1 billion computing-capacity deal with Reflection AI. And on the same day as the asset-light announcement, Nebius closed a $775 million secured credit facility backed by already-deployed GPU infrastructure and contractually committed customer payments.
The loan, which runs to October 31, 2030 and carries a rate of SOFR plus 2.50 percentage points, is designed to fund expansion without diluting shareholders — a key concern for a stock trading at roughly 70 times trailing earnings. Nebius also pointed to more than $40 billion in contracted revenue from Microsoft and Meta, and to Nvidia’s earlier $2 billion participation via pre-funded warrants. On the balance sheet, cash stood at $9.3 billion as of March 31, collected from $6.3 billion in prior capital markets raises.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?
But the capital demands of the business remain immense. For 2025, Nebius posted revenue of $529.8 million and a net loss of $446.7 million. Management forecasts 2026 capital expenditure between $20 billion and $25 billion, with a mid-point around $22.5 billion — figures that make the $775 million loan look like a down payment. The first quarter showed the growth trajectory: revenue surged 684% to $399 million, and cloud AI revenue jumped 841% to $389.7 million. Yet the company acknowledges that its current cash flow from customers more than covers planned investment outlays, thanks to the long-term agreements.
The asset-light pivot adds another layer to the financing puzzle. By offloading the burden of building and operating data centres onto partners, Nebius aims to decouple its growth rate from its own balance sheet. The risk is that it loses control over quality and margins. The stock’s reaction to this news has been choppy: the Reflection AI deal drove a roughly 4% gain in mid-July, and the $775 million loan added another 3% on its own day. Yet the week ended July 19 nonetheless saw a 19% decline — a 14% drop partially offset by an 8% recovery.
Institutional investors appear willing to look through the volatility. Jennison Associates opened a 1,700,223-share position in the first quarter worth roughly $176.4 million, equal to 0.68% of the company. Overall institutional ownership sits at 21.9%. Insider selling, however, has been heavy: in the past three months, insiders disposed of 668,405 shares worth $140.4 million, including one block of 31,357 shares. The analyst consensus shows nine buy and six hold ratings, with an average price target of $203.25 (about €186 at current exchange rates).
With a 30-day annualized volatility of 104.85% — far above the low double-digits typical of established tech giants — and the stock now 18% below its 50-day moving average of €198.18 but 35% above its 200-day average of €119.53, the technical picture suggests a short-term breather rather than a broken uptrend. The true test lies in how quickly the first asset-light partnerships materialise and whether they can maintain the same growth profile that made the stock a 120% year-to-date gainer before the slide began. For now, Nebius is asking the market to bet on two models at once: borrowing against its own GPUs while letting others build the next ones.
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