Nel ASA: Record Orders Mask the Pain of Tariffs, a CEO Exit, and a Stock Near Its Floor
Published on 07/26/2026 at 18:22 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nel ASA finds itself caught between two opposing forces: a surge in new business that has yet to translate into profitability, and a series of external shocks that are keeping the share price pinned near 52-week lows. The Norwegian hydrogen-technology company saw its order intake rocket 171% in the second quarter of 2026, yet the stock closed Friday at €0.1968, down 2.09% on the day and just 13.69% above its trough of €0.1731.
The disconnect between operational momentum and market sentiment stems from a trio of headwinds that have converged in recent weeks. New US import tariffs on electrolysers, set to range between 10% and 12.5%, directly undermine Nel’s cost competitiveness in North America at a time when the company is scaling up its pressurised alkaline electrolysis platform. Meanwhile, CEO Håkon Volldal’s departure to packaging group Elopak has left a leadership vacuum during a critical industrialisation phase. The search for a successor is underway, but no decision has been announced.
A Legal Cloud Lifts, but Questions Remain
On the positive side, Nel has removed one significant overhang. The long-running dispute with Iwatani Corporation of America, which originally involved claims of roughly $70 million, was settled in June 2026. The agreement relieves the balance sheet of a substantial contingent liability, though the financial terms of the settlement and the costs tied to the now-separated Cavendish Hydrogen refuelling unit remain points of scrutiny for analysts.
Technical Picture Suggests a Potential Bounce
From a chart perspective, the stock is flashing mixed signals. The 14-day relative strength index stands at 36.5, edging toward the oversold threshold of 30 — a level that has historically preceded short-term consolidation or a technical rebound. Nel currently trades about 20% below its 50-day moving average of €0.2463 and roughly 8% under the 200-day average of €0.2147.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
The €0.1731 support level is now the key line in the sand. If the share price can hold above €0.19 in the coming week, that would offer an initial stabilisation signal. A catalyst — such as clarity on the CEO succession or signs that the US tariff impact might be softened — could drive a move back toward the 50-day average.
Brussels Provides a Glimmer of Policy Support
While trade policy in Washington creates headwinds, European regulators are moving in the opposite direction. The European Commission published a new call for interest on July 22 under the EU Hydrogen Mechanism, targeting transmission system operators and hydrogen network operators to gauge market appetite for pipeline and storage infrastructure projects. The initiative is part of a broader revision of the EU hydrogen strategy planned for 2026, which aims to refocus decarbonisation efforts on hard-to-electrify industries such as steel.
For a pure-play electrolyser manufacturer like Nel, infrastructure progress is existential. Without pipelines and storage, large-scale green hydrogen projects — many of which have been delayed across the industry — struggle to secure financing. A separate industry report published July 24 described the sector’s transition from blueprints to reality as a long and uncertain journey, even with support from programmes like the European Hydrogen Bank and Germany’s carbon contracts for difference.
Nel ASA at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Analyst Caution Reflects the Uncertainty
The market’s cautious stance is echoed by sell-side analysts. Berenberg and Citi both reaffirmed “Hold” and “Neutral” ratings respectively after Nel reported a cash position of roughly 1.3 billion Norwegian kroner at the half-year mark — enough to ease near-term financing concerns, but not enough to shift the fundamental outlook. Their price targets of 2.30 to 2.40 Norwegian kroner translate to approximately €0.20, barely above the current trading level.
Nel’s next quarterly results are due on October 21. With an annualised 30-day volatility of nearly 42%, the stock remains highly sensitive to regulatory decisions in Brussels and project announcements in both Europe and North America. For now, the company’s record order book is a story of future promise — but the present is being written by tariffs, a leadership transition, and a share price testing the limits of investor patience.
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Nel ASA Stock: New Analysis - 26 July
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