Nel ASA's 224% Order Surge Overshadowed by Widening Losses, CEO Exit, and Zero Analyst Support
Published on 07/16/2026 at 18:24 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nel ASA’s second-quarter 2026 results read like a study in contradictions. The Norwegian hydrogen technology group booked orders worth €20.5 million — a 224% leap from the same period last year and the strongest intake in recent memory. Yet revenue slumped 12% to €13.7 million, the operating loss deepened to €18.3 million, and the company announced the departure of CEO Håkon Volldal. The market response has been tepid: the stock closed at €0.1948 on Thursday, down 2.6% on the day and about 47% below its 52-week high of €0.3655 set in late May.
The order explosion was almost entirely driven by Nel’s PEM electrolysis division, which accounted for 96% of new bookings. The segment’s order backlog swelled to €88.4 million, offering a promising pipeline for future quarters. However, the revenue benefit will lag, and the income statement for Q2 bore the brunt of a €6.3 million charge related to a settlement with Japanese partner Iwatani. That one-off item pushed EBITDA from a loss of €7.7 million a year ago to minus €13.8 million. The net loss settled at €16.9 million.
Cash cushion keeps the lights on
Despite the red ink, Nel’s balance sheet remains a source of comfort. Cash and equivalents stood at €118.6 million (1,328 million Norwegian kroner), down from 1,928 million NOK a year earlier but still ample to fund operations and investments. Management has stressed that liquidity is sufficient to weather the current trough in demand and to continue developing next-generation technology.
That assertion matters because the analyst community has turned conspicuously cold. Of the thirteen analysts covering the stock, none rate it a buy. Seven recommend selling, and six advise holding — a unanimity of caution that underscores how far Nel is from convincing the Street of a turnaround.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
New electrolyser platform as a potential game-changer
What could shift that perception is the company’s new pressurized alkaline (PA) electrolyser platform, launched on May 6 with partners and customers. Early prototypes have delivered encouraging results, according to Nel. The design cuts footprint by 80% and capital expenditure by 40–60%. Management expects initial orders in the coming months and is scaling production capacity with the help of a €135 million EU grant: 500 megawatts by end-2026 and 1 gigawatt in 2027.
Profitability, however, remains a distant target. Nel has stated it needs annual alkaline volumes in the triple-digit megawatt range coupled with a PEM utilization rate of 20–24% to break even. By those measures, the company is still far short of the threshold — hence the critical importance of the cash pile.
Segment-level performance paints a mixed picture
The PEM division posted revenue of 97 million NOK (roughly €8.6 million), up 31% from the first quarter but down 10% year-on-year, carried mainly by small kilowatt-scale electrolysers. The alkaline segment saw a 14% revenue decline versus Q2 2025, though its EBITDA remained stable. Together, the two businesses generated an operating loss of 205 million NOK (€18.3 million), in line with the cumulative loss reported in euros.
Nel ASA at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Technical signals flash caution
The stock’s chart reflects the market’s ambivalence. It trades 22.5% below its 50-day moving average of €0.2560 and 7.9% below the 200-day average of €0.2154. The 14-day relative strength index at 32.4 hovers near oversold territory, and 30-day annualized volatility of 51.2% points to sharp swings on any fresh news. Over the past week the shares have lost 3.7%; over a month, 8.2%. Yet year-to-date they are still up 3.5%, a reminder of the two-way risk in a name that remains a bet on hydrogen adoption, not on current earnings.
With a leadership vacuum at the top, zero analyst conviction, and a settlement-driven loss that masks a fundamentally stable underlying business, Nel ASA enters the second half of 2026 leaning heavily on its cash buffer and the promise of a new platform. Whether the order momentum translates into revenue growth — and eventually profitability — will determine if the stock can claw back the ground it has lost since May.
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