Nel ASA's Breakneck Rally Hits a Reality Check as Order Book Shrinks
26.05.2026 - 17:52:29 | boerse-global.de
Nel ASA shares experienced a textbook reversal on Tuesday, surging to a new 52-week high of 0.366 euros in early trading before rapidly giving back gains. The stock slipped nearly 5% in Oslo afternoon trade, with some estimates putting the decline closer to 6% as profit-taking swept through the hydrogen name. The move marked an abrupt end to a furious rally that has more than doubled the equity since early March.
At the heart of the optimism is the company's next-generation pressurized alkaline electrolyzer platform, unveiled in early May. The system passed all tests at its Norwegian prototype and is ready for commercial deployment. Critically, Nel says the platform can drive total installed costs for turnkey hydrogen projects below $1,450 per kilowatt—roughly half the current industry average of more than $3,000 per kilowatt. That cost advantage, combined with a cash pile of around 1.4 billion Norwegian kroner, gives the company a runway to push the technology into the market.
But the operational reality paints a starkly different picture. In the first quarter, Nel reported contract revenue of 148 million kroner, down 5% year on year. The order backlog shrank by nearly a quarter to approximately 1.1 billion kroner, while the EBITDA loss improved only marginally to minus 100 million kroner. New orders during the period totaled just 85 million kroner—a fraction of the backlog depletion. The fundamental disconnect between technology promise and commercial traction is widening.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
The stock's technical backdrop has become increasingly stretched. The year-to-date advance stands at roughly 77%, though some analysts calculate a 75% gain from the start of 2026. With the 30-day annualized volatility above 100%, Nel remains a trader's domain. The recent push briefly broke above the key resistance level of 3.615 Norwegian kroner (roughly 0.366 euros) last week, but the close on Monday at 3.575 kroner failed to confirm the breakout. A stochastic RSI buy signal had flashed from oversold territory but has already been partially unwound. The stock now trades more than 60% above its 200-day moving average, leaving it vulnerable to a mean-reversion move. If the price slips below the 50-day moving average at 0.24 euros, technical selling could accelerate.
Profit-taking is the predictable consequence of such rapid gains. Investors who bought near the March low of around 0.18 euros now sit on a paper profit of nearly 90%. That built-in selling pressure exists regardless of how compelling the electrolyzer story becomes. The rally, for now, remains a bet on future potential rather than current earnings power.
Whether Nel can sustainably hold above the 3.615 kroner resistance depends entirely on the next few quarters' order intake. Until the downward trend in the backlog reverses, the stock's trajectory will remain a tug-of-war between technological fantasy and fundamental reality. The company has the balance sheet to weather the storm, but conviction requires evidence that the pipeline is refilling.
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