Nel ASA: Technical Signals Flash Caution as Brussels Provides a Policy Lifeline
Published on 07/26/2026 at 20:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nel ASA’s stock continues to drift lower, closing Friday at €0.1968 with a daily loss of 2.09%, but the chart is starting to whisper that a reversal could be brewing. The 14-day relative strength index has slipped to 36.5, inching toward the oversold threshold of 30 — a level that has historically preceded short-term consolidation or a technical bounce in the Norwegian electrolyser maker’s shares.
The stock now trades roughly 20% below its 50-day moving average of €0.2463 and sits about 8% under the 200-day average of €0.2147. That mid-term downtrend places Nel squarely in the crosshairs of a broader reality check gripping the hydrogen sector, where the gap between ambition and execution has become the defining theme for investors.
Policy Tailwinds Emerge From Brussels
Just as the technical picture darkens, European regulators are stepping in with fresh support. On July 22, the European Commission launched a new call for interest under the EU Hydrogen Mechanism, targeting transmission system operators and hydrogen network companies. The aim is to gauge market appetite for infrastructure projects including pipelines and storage facilities — the kind of backbone that green hydrogen production needs to scale.
The initiative feeds into a planned 2026 revision of the EU’s hydrogen strategy, which will reassess existing targets and prioritise decarbonisation in hard-to-electrify industries such as steelmaking. For a pure-play electrolyser manufacturer like Nel, these infrastructure developments are critical. Without pipelines and storage, large-scale green hydrogen projects — many of which have faced delays across the industry — struggle to secure financing.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
A Mixed Financial Picture
Nel’s own financial position offers some reassurance, though the underlying trends remain uneven. The company ended the first half with a cash pile of roughly 1.3 billion Norwegian kroner, which has helped calm some near-term liquidity concerns. However, second-quarter revenue slipped to 182 million kroner from 215 million a year earlier, while EBITDA swung deeply negative, weighed down by a 70 million kroner settlement payment to Iwatani.
On the brighter side, order intake climbed to 230 million kroner, pushing the total order backlog to 1.2 billion kroner. The company is also betting on a new pressurised alkaline platform to cut both footprint and capital costs, with initial orders expected in the coming months. By the end of 2026, Nel aims to reach 500 megawatts of manufacturing capacity, backed by €135 million in EU grants.
Despite these efforts, analyst sentiment remains tepid. Berenberg and Citi both maintain “Hold” and “Neutral” ratings respectively, with price targets of 2.30 to 2.40 Norwegian kroner — roughly €0.20, barely above current levels. No major bank currently recommends buying the stock.
The Sector’s Hype-to-Reality Transition
A broader industry report published July 24 captures the hydrogen sector’s current mood: the transition from blueprints to reality is proving slower and more uncertain than early optimism suggested. Support programmes like the European Hydrogen Bank and Germany’s climate protection contracts are providing a floor, but the path forward remains long.
Nel remains largely disconnected from the AI-driven data centre frenzy that has lifted peers like Bloom Energy and FuelCell Energy. Instead, its fortunes hinge on European electrolyser demand and the pace of regulatory implementation. The EU’s electrification plan, released July 17 with supplementary details through July 24, aims to make Europe the “first electrified continent” — a goal that could ultimately lower electricity costs for green hydrogen production.
Nel ASA at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Key Levels and What Comes Next
Technically, the 52-week low of €0.1731 serves as the next major support, while the 200-day moving average at €0.2147 stands as the immediate resistance. With annualised 30-day volatility running near 42%, Nel remains a stock prone to sharp swings, sensitive both to regulatory decisions in Brussels and to concrete project announcements in Europe and North America.
The next quarterly results are due October 21. Until then, the stock’s trajectory will likely be shaped by whether Brussels can convert its policy ambitions into tangible infrastructure progress — and whether Nel can narrow the persistent gap between its order book and realised revenue.
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Nel ASA Stock: New Analysis - 26 July
Fresh Nel ASA information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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