Nel ASA: Technology Leap Can't Mask 73% Order Collapse and CEO Exit
Published on 07/04/2026 at 14:24 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The narrative surrounding Nel ASA has become a study in contrasts. On one hand, the Norwegian hydrogen specialist has unveiled an electrolyser system that promises to slash production costs to under $1,450 per kilowatt for a 25-megawatt plant — roughly half the current industry benchmark of $3,000. On the other, first-quarter order intake plunged 73% to just 85 million Norwegian kroner, and the CEO who championed this technology is heading for the exit.
HĂĄkon Volldal will leave the company by early 2027 to take the helm at packaging group Elopak, leaving a leadership vacuum at a critical juncture. The board is actively searching for a successor, but the timing could hardly be worse: Nel is trying to convert its technological advance into commercial traction while navigating a soft patch in project awards.
The stock closed Friday at €0.21, a 3.13% gain on the day and a 4.90% weekly advance. Yet that barely scratches the surface of the damage. Over the past month, the shares have shed 31.63%. They now trade 41.45% below the 52-week high of €0.37 reached in May, though they remain 23.63% above the February trough of €0.17. Year-to-date, the gain is a modest 11.63%; on a 12-month view, the stock is down 5.73%.
Technically, the share price is hovering almost exactly at its 200-day moving average of €0.21 — a level often interpreted as a long-term equilibrium. More revealing is the gap to the 50-day average of €0.27, which is nearly 20% higher. That chasm suggests a stock that shot up on a technology-driven narrative in the spring and has since surrendered most of those gains.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
The fundamental picture is no less polarised. First-quarter revenue slipped 5% to 148 million kroner, while the net loss widened to 144 million kroner. Order backlog shrank 24% over the same period. Volldal has characterised the weakness as industry-wide rather than company-specific, noting that the PEM division has already booked a new order in the second quarter and expects more before mid-year. He also points to shifting demand drivers: post-energy-market volatility, resilience and decentralised supply are gaining traction alongside defence applications.
However, the market remains sceptical. Berenberg analyst James Carmichael maintained a neutral rating while cutting his price target to 2.30 Norwegian kroner, citing persistently weak order activity. No analyst currently recommends buying the stock — a stark reversal from the bullish chorus that accompanied the spring rally.
A cushion of approximately 1.4 billion kroner in liquid assets gives management breathing room. Meanwhile, Nel has cleared one legal overhang, settling a US dispute with Iwatani Corporation for $7.5 million.
Nel ASA at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
All eyes now turn to July 15, when the company presents its half-year results. That report will serve as a stress test for the new electrolyser platform. Without fresh orders, the promised commercial inflection point recedes further. The relative strength index, at 38.8, is approaching oversold territory but has not yet signalled a clear reversal. With 30-day annualised volatility at 67%, every data point triggers outsized moves.
Nel remains a classic story stock valued at €388.46 million — cheap enough to attract speculative capital in the dips, yet too rich relative to its order book for professional analysts to dive in. That tension encapsulates the broader green-hydrogen dilemma in 2026: genuine technical progress collides with a commercial rollout that lags expectations. Until the order book starts catching up with the cost curve, the shares are likely to oscillate between bursts of optimism and sobering numbers, rather than establish a lasting trend.
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Nel ASA Stock: New Analysis - 4 July
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