Nokia's AI-Network Offensive Meets a Market Obsessed With Cost Pressures
Published on 07/20/2026 at 16:25 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nokia this week unveiled what it bills as the industry's first commercially available AI-native radio access network platform, built in partnership with Nvidia, and sealed a 5G expansion deal with Taiwan Mobile. Yet the market has paid more attention to the other side of the ledger: the stock has lost more than a quarter of its value over the past month, driven by a cost warning from Swedish rival Ericsson and a broad technology rout.
The new platform combines Nokia's anyRAN software with Nvidia's Aerial AI-RAN technology. The goal is to help mobile operators transition to AI-native network architectures by 2028, more than doubling spectral efficiency — meaning they could push twice as much data through existing spectrum without buying new licenses. Pilot tests have already shown spectral efficiency gains of more than 20%, and Nokia plans to trial the technology in select networks this year, with full commercial availability targeted for 2027.
The Taiwan Mobile deal, announced a day earlier on July 14, covers Nokia's AirScale portfolio — new baseband equipment and radios — augmented by AI software for enhanced automation and energy efficiency. Taken together, the two announcements signal Nokia's strategic pivot from a pure hardware supplier toward a software- and AI-driven network equipment provider. The question is whether that pivot will start generating tangible order intake by the time the company reports first-half earnings on July 23, 2026.
The market's immediate reaction, however, has been skeptical. Nokia shares closed at €8.90 on Friday, down 2.39% on the day and now more than 40% below the 52-week high of €14.97 reached in early June. The slide has accelerated since Ericsson warned of rising costs for memory chips and semiconductor components, driven by surging demand for AI infrastructure. Nokia's stock shed 13.47% in the past seven days and 25.27% over the past month, as investors fretted that similar margin pressure would hit the entire telecom equipment sector. A concurrent selloff in U.S. tech benchmarks — the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both posted sharp losses — added to the downward pull.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nokia?
Despite the correction, Nokia's longer-term performance remains impressive. The shares have gained 59.21% since the start of the year and have more than doubled over the trailing twelve months, with a 158% recovery from the 52-week low of €3.45 last August. That rally was built on expectations for Nokia's AI-network business — precisely the same business line that is now under scrutiny because of Ericsson's cost warning.
Technical indicators suggest the selling may have been overdone. The 14-day relative strength index has fallen to 31.5, approaching oversold territory, while the 30-day annualized volatility stands at 66.61% — a level that implies sharp price swings around the upcoming earnings report. Nokia's stock trades well below its 50-day moving average of €11.90 but remains above the 200-day average of €7.74, indicating that the short-term correction fits within a longer-term uptrend. The MACD momentum indicator, however, remains below its signal line, pointing to continued negative short-term pressure.
Wall Street analysts have largely held their ground. The consensus rating remains "Buy," with an average price target of $14.67. JPMorgan raised its target to $21 in June and maintained an "Overweight" rating, while Argus Research upgraded the stock to "Buy" in April with a $15 target. But the market's near-term attention is on the quarterly results due on July 23, when Nokia is expected to report earnings of €0.07 per share on revenue of $5.59 billion, compared with €0.04 and $5.15 billion in the year-ago quarter.
Nokia at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The critical question for investors will be whether Nokia's AI-network business can buffer the cost pressures that Ericsson flagged — or whether the expense headwinds will prove industry-wide. With the stock now trading at nearly half its June peak, the earnings report will serve as the first material test of whether the Nvidia partnership and the broader AI-RAN strategy can translate into real financial resilience.
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