Novo Nordisk Races to Close the Efficacy Gap: EU Backs Oral Wegovy as Lilly Posts 28.3% Weight Loss
25.05.2026 - 19:32:38 | boerse-global.de
Novo Nordisk’s progress on oral and high-dose Wegovy in Europe comes at a moment when the competitive landscape has suddenly shifted. Eli Lilly’s phase 3 data for Retatrutide — a triple-agonist that delivered an average 28.3% weight loss over 80 weeks in the TRIUMPH-1 study — set a new benchmark on May 21 that the Danish pharma giant cannot ignore. The EU regulator’s backing for two Wegovy variants offers a timely counterpoint, but the question hanging over the stock is whether these approvals can close the widening efficacy gap.
The European Medicines Agency’s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use gave a positive recommendation for both an oral tablet containing 25 mg of semaglutide and a new single-dose pen delivering 7.2 mg. The oral version, based on the OASIS study, produced an average weight reduction of 16.6% in adults who followed the therapy as prescribed. The high-dose pen, tested in the STEP-UP trial over 72 weeks, achieved 20.7%. Novo Nordisk plans to launch the tablet in select markets outside the United States in the second half of the year, while the improved pen is designed to simplify dosing and support adherence — a critical factor in a market where staying on therapy often matters as much as peak efficacy.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the Wegovy pill has already made an impact. Launched in the US on January 5, 2026, weekly prescriptions exceeded 200,000 by mid-April. First-quarter revenue from the product hit 2.256 billion Danish kroner. But the shadow of Lilly’s Retatrutide — a GIP, GLP-1 and glucagon receptor agonist — looms over both continents. With 28.3% weight loss, it comfortably surpasses Wegovy’s best published figures, and the market is pricing in the threat accordingly.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?
Novo Nordisk is responding on multiple fronts. Its pipeline includes CagriSema, a combination therapy, and UBT251, its own triple-agonist now in phase 2. The company is also leaning into artificial intelligence to compress the timeline from clinical development to market launch by up to two-thirds. A strategic partnership with OpenAI, announced in April, aims to accelerate drug development and regulatory submissions. The Bengaluru center is taking on a growing share of global launch preparation work, and the group has already cut several months from the period between trial completion and first regulatory filing.
Yet the operational push is running against a tough financial backdrop. In the first quarter of 2026, adjusted sales fell 4% and adjusted operating income dropped 6%, both at constant exchange rates. The obesity segment alone grew 22%. Full-year guidance was revised higher but still points to a contraction: adjusted sales and operating profit are expected to land in a range of negative 4% to negative 12%. The company has scaled back its global service unit target to 4,000 employees by end-2026, down from an earlier goal of 5,000 by 2025, a sign that it is betting on AI-driven efficiencies rather than headcount expansion.
The stock reflects the tension. Trading around 38.90 euros, Novo Nordisk’s shares have gained 10.64% over the past month but remain 12.93% lower year-to-date. The 12-month decline stands at 36.64%, and the equity is still 7.67% below its 200-day moving average. At roughly 45% below the 52-week high of 70.13 euros, the valuation suggests investors are waiting for concrete evidence that the pipeline can narrow the gap with Lilly.
With over 69,000 employees, 16 manufacturing sites and a presence in 170 countries, Novo Nordisk has the scale to compete. The question is whether the combination of oral and high-dose Wegovy, the AI acceleration program, and the next-generation pipeline will be enough to restore confidence. The next four to six quarters of clinical data — particularly around CagriSema and UBT251 — will be decisive. For now, the EU nods provide a lift, but Lilly has set a bar that demands more than incremental progress.
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