Novo Nordisk’s Oral Wegovy Shatters Forecasts as 2 Million Prescriptions Rewrite the Launch Record

The arrival of Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy has proven far more explosive than even the most optimistic Wall Street projections anticipated. Since its US debut in January, the pill has racked up over 2 million prescriptions through April, with the first quarter alone delivering 1.3 million scripts and generating 2.26 billion Danish kroner in revenue — roughly double what analysts had penciled in. Management has hailed it as the strongest volume launch of any GLP-1 therapy in American history.

CEO Mike Doustdar moved quickly to dismiss fears that the oral version would cannibalise sales of the established injectable Wegovy. Rather than eating into the franchise, the two formulations appear to be feeding off each other. Injectable Wegovy sales climbed 12 percent to 18.2 billion kroner during the period, suggesting the pill is expanding the overall market rather than simply shifting patients from one delivery method to another.

Revenue Beats but Price Erosion Bites

The headline numbers tell a story of outperformance. Unadjusted revenue hit 96.82 billion kroner, comfortably ahead of consensus estimates, while net profit surged 67 percent to 48.56 billion kroner. Yet beneath the surface, the picture is more nuanced. Currency-adjusted revenue actually slipped 4 percent, dragged down by a punishing 11 percent decline in US sales as lower prices wiped out volume gains. International markets fared better, posting a 6 percent increase.

The divergence between the pill’s spectacular uptake and the broader financial squeeze has left investors parsing the numbers carefully. Adjusted operating profit fell 6 percent in the quarter, underscoring the margin pressure emanating from Novo Nordisk’s core diabetes business.

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Guidance Tweaked, but Questions Linger

In response to the pill’s strong start, management nudged its full-year outlook higher. The company now expects currency-adjusted revenue and operating profit to decline between 4 and 12 percent — a narrower range than previously flagged. Jefferies analysts described the cautious upward revision as a potential red flag, suggesting the lower end of the band may signal lingering uncertainty about the competitive landscape.

Morgan Stanley took a more benign view, calling the new guidance conservative and leaving room for upside if the pill’s momentum continues. The company is betting heavily on the oral formulation to offset the price erosion that has plagued its US operations. In a direct challenge to Eli Lilly’s newly launched Foundayo pill, Novo Nordisk is pricing its oral Wegovy at $149 per month in the US. Early data suggests the strategy is working: roughly 80 percent of the pill’s users had never taken a similar medication before.

Pipeline Progress and Regulatory Wins

Beyond the quarterly results, Novo Nordisk notched several regulatory victories. The FDA and European authorities approved a high-dose version of Wegovy, which helped patients achieve an average 20.7 percent weight loss in clinical trials. The weekly basal insulin Awiqli also secured US clearance, while the rare-disease candidate Etavopivat hit all primary endpoints in a late-stage study.

The obesity segment overall grew 22 percent, but the competitive heat is intensifying. Eli Lilly’s Foundayo pill entered the market in April, and Novo Nordisk’s own next-generation candidate, CagriSema, faces a US regulatory decision in the fourth quarter. The drug underperformed against Lilly’s Zepbound in an internal study, adding pressure on the company to demonstrate pipeline depth. New clinical data will be presented at the European Congress on Obesity in Istanbul from May 12 to 15.

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Stock Rebounds, but Year-to-Date Pain Lingers

The market greeted the results with a sharp rally. Shares in Copenhagen surged as much as 9.2 percent on Wednesday before closing 2.3 percent higher at €39.09. The monthly gain now stands at nearly 23 percent, marking a significant recovery from recent lows. Yet the stock remains down roughly 35 percent year-to-date, and the distance to its 52-week high is still substantial.

Novo Nordisk returned 37.7 billion kroner to shareholders in the first quarter through dividends and buybacks, while ploughing 22.4 billion kroner into research and development. The next major catalyst arrives in the second half of 2026, when the oral Wegovy begins its international rollout. For now, the pill has delivered a jolt of optimism — but the underlying price squeeze and competitive threats ensure the recovery narrative remains a work in progress.

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