Novo Nordisk’s Strategic Pivot: Can a New Tablet Reignite Growth?

After a challenging period, Novo Nordisk is mounting a significant counteroffensive in the lucrative weight-loss drug market. The Danish pharmaceutical giant has launched Wegovy in a new, FDA-approved tablet form in the United States, marking a strategic shift aimed at reclaiming market leadership. The central question for investors is whether this oral version will generate fresh demand or merely cannibalize sales from its injectable treatments.

The company's shares have shown notable strength in recent trading sessions. Over a 30-day period, the stock has advanced more than 20%, adding approximately 10% in the last week alone. Despite this rebound, the equity remains down over 40% on a 12-month basis, a reflection of the pressures faced in 2025 and its distance from previous highs. This price action captures both the past year's burdens and the emerging hope that the new tablet strategy will gain traction.

From a technical perspective, conditions have improved. The share price now trades decisively above its 50-day moving average, though it remains below the 200-day average, suggesting a bottoming process is underway but not yet complete. With a 30-day volatility reading above 36%, the stock continues to exhibit significant price swings.

The Oral Wegovy Launch: A Calculated Move

The commercial introduction of oral Wegovy on January 5, 2026, follows its regulatory clearance by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration just before the end of 2025. This pill is the first FDA-approved GLP-1 medication for weight management in tablet form. The strategic rationale is clear: by eliminating the needle, Novo Nordisk lowers a major barrier for patients, potentially expanding its addressable market and seizing back competitive momentum.

Competitive Pricing to Drive Adoption

The company has positioned the oral therapy at a sharp discount to established injectable GLP-1 drugs, which often carry list prices near $1,000 per month. Its pricing structure is as follows:

• Lower doses (1.5 mg and 4 mg): $149 per month
• Higher doses (9 mg and 25 mg): $299 per month

Notably, the 4 mg dose will remain priced at $149 until April 15, 2026, before increasing to $199. For patients with commercial insurance, co-pays could start around $25 monthly. This aggressive pricing is designed to facilitate patient uptake and create a clear cost incentive versus injectable alternatives.

Leveraging Extensive Distribution Channels

To support the launch, Novo Nordisk is ensuring wide availability. The tablet is reportedly accessible at over 70,000 U.S. pharmacies, including major chains like CVS and Costco. Furthermore, telehealth providers such as Ro, LifeMD, WeightWatchers, and GoodRx, along with the company's own NovoCare Pharmacy, are integrating the product into their offerings. This combination of convenient administration, competitive pricing, and broad distribution is intended to drive rapid market penetration.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?

Navigating a Shifting Competitive Landscape

This launch occurs in a market where rival Eli Lilly gained considerable share in 2025 with its tirzepatide-based products Mounjaro and Zepbound, for diabetes and obesity respectively. The competitive dynamics in the U.S. have shifted noticeably, placing Novo Nordisk at a disadvantage.

Market researchers estimate the oral GLP-1 segment could represent about 24% of the global weight-management drug market by 2030, equating to roughly $22 billion in sales. This positions the category as a standalone growth arena, not merely a niche complement to injections. Eli Lilly is developing its own oral GLP-1 candidate, orforglipron, currently under FDA review with a decision expected in the first half of 2026. This timeline grants Novo Nordisk a clear head start to establish itself as the standard oral therapy provider.

Positive Development from China: Patent Victory

The company received bolstering news from China in late December 2025. The country's Supreme People's Court upheld a key semaglutide patent for Novo Nordisk, supporting an earlier ruling from a Beijing intellectual property court.

This decision strengthens patent protection for Wegovy and Ozempic in the world's second-largest pharmaceutical market. Management views the ruling as a positive signal regarding Chinese authorities' willingness to protect pharmaceutical innovation and the long-term investments of foreign companies—a critical factor for strategic planning and pricing stability.

Upcoming Catalysts: Guidance and Financial Results

Several near-term events could influence the stock's direction. On January 13, 2026, CEO Mike Doustdar is scheduled to speak at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco. Investors will scrutinize his comments for early insights on the oral Wegovy launch and broader strategic priorities.

The full-year 2025 financial results, set for release before market open in Copenhagen on February 4, 2026, will be another key focus. The market consensus anticipates fourth-quarter earnings per share of approximately $0.90. Novo Nordisk has previously indicated that the patent expiry for semaglutid in some countries during 2026 is likely to have a negative, low-single-digit percentage impact on global sales growth.

The current valuation reflects this mix of challenges and opportunities. Following the 2025 correction, the stock trades at about 15 times expected earnings, a discount to the healthcare sector average of around 18 times. A successful commercial rollout of the Wegovy tablet that demonstrates an expansion of the total market, rather than just a shift from injections, could serve as the catalyst for a positive re-rating of the shares.