Novo Nordisk’s Two-Front Offensive: Discounted Ozempic Copy and a $1 Billion Buyback
Published on 07/28/2026 at 18:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Novo Nordisk is fighting on multiple fronts to defend its GLP-1 empire, and the market is taking notice. The Danish drugmaker’s shares climbed 2% in recent trading, buoyed by a fresh strategy to undercut the gray market in South Africa and a massive share buyback program that has already scooped up more than 11 million B-shares.
The stock now trades at around €44, recovering 44.5% from its 52-week low of €30.25 hit in March. Yet it remains roughly 25% below the €59.56 peak reached in July 2025, leaving plenty of room for the next catalyst: second-quarter earnings due August 5.
A Licensed Copy to Combat the Gray Market
In a move that blends pragmatism with aggression, Novo Nordisk has launched Extensior in South Africa — an authorized, lower-cost version of its blockbuster diabetes drug Ozempic. Manufactured by Swiss partner Acino based in Abu Dhabi, Extensior contains the identical semaglutide molecule and uses the same injection device as the branded product. The only difference is the name.
The timing is no coincidence. Novo’s patent on semaglutide expired in March, opening the door for generic competitors. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries has already secured approval for a generic semaglutide in South Africa, making it only the second market after India where the Indian drugmaker can sell a copycat version.
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But Novo’s bigger worry is the gray market that has flourished in South Africa. After Eli Lilly launched Mounjaro and Novo introduced Wegovy, demand for GLP-1 drugs exploded — but many patients couldn’t afford the originals. Local pharmacies and manufacturers began mixing unregulated semaglutide copies, prompting regulators to crack down on safety concerns. Novo had already obtained a court injunction against one supplier, iDexis, in June 2026, though that decision is under appeal.
Extensior is designed to strangle that gray market by offering a cheaper, regulated alternative. Sara Norcross, Novo’s South Africa country head, confirmed the pricing strategy to Reuters, though specific figures won’t be released until next week. The move follows earlier price cuts on Wegovy in the region.
Buyback Machine Keeps Running
While Novo fights for market share in emerging markets, it’s also returning capital to shareholders at a steady clip. The company confirmed on July 27 that it has repurchased over 11 million B-shares as part of a 12-month program totaling 15 billion Danish kroner. The buyback has already consumed more than 7.1 billion kroner, roughly $1 billion at current exchange rates.
The repurchase program adds a floor under the stock as Novo navigates a period of intense competitive pressure. Options markets are pricing in an 8% swing around the August 5 earnings release — a sign of the uncertainty surrounding the company’s next quarterly report.
Oral Wegovy Is the Near-Term Star
The most important growth driver right now isn’t a new drug — it’s a new formulation. The EU Commission approved the oral version of Wegovy (semaglutide in pill form) for weight loss in mid-July, and early prescription data is stunning. In just the first five months, the pill racked up over 3 million prescriptions. Crucially, 80% of those patients were first-time GLP-1 users, meaning the pill is expanding the market rather than cannibalizing injectable sales.
A new 7.2-milligram injectable pen also launched alongside the oral formulation, giving doctors more dosing flexibility.
Novo Nordisk at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
CagriSema and the Lilly Legal Battle
The longer-term story hinges on CagriSema, Novo’s combination therapy that pairs semaglutide with cagrilintide. The company filed for FDA approval on December 18, 2025, and a decision is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026 — a binary event that could reshape Novo’s growth trajectory.
In the meantime, the competitive war with Eli Lilly is escalating. Late July saw Novo file a lawsuit accusing Lilly of misleading advertising that compares higher Lilly doses against lower Novo doses using outdated clinical data. The legal clash comes as both companies face pricing pressure in the US and Chinese markets.
The August 5 earnings report will provide the next hard data on how these dynamics are playing out — not just on revenue and guidance, but on the commercial trajectory of CagriSema and the oral Wegovy rollout. For now, Novo is deploying every tool in its arsenal: authorized generics, share buybacks, legal challenges, and new formulations. The question is whether that will be enough to close the gap to that €59.56 high.
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Novo Nordisk Stock: New Analysis - 28 July
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