Nucor Shares Dip as Quarterly Results Fall Short of Forecasts

Nucor Corporation's latest financial update revealed fourth-quarter earnings that missed analyst projections, though company leadership expressed confidence in an improved performance trajectory for the coming year. The steel producer's results, released yesterday, covered the final quarter and full year of 2025.

For Q4 2025, Nucor reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.73 on revenue of $7.69 billion. Both metrics were acknowledged by the company as having fallen below market expectations. Despite this quarterly shortfall, the executive team struck an optimistic tone regarding 2026, citing strategic initiatives and anticipated more favorable market conditions as reasons for their positive view.

The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see earnings growth across all three of Nucor's business segments. This projected improvement is attributed to higher volumes and better realized prices in the steel mills unit, increased shipment volumes at stable prices within the steel products segment, and enhanced results from the raw materials division.

Market Conditions and Pricing Trends

A key recent development has been movement in steel prices. Nucor announced its second consecutive weekly increase in the spot price for hot-rolled coil (HRC). As of January 26, the listed price for end users reached $965 per short ton, marking a $5 rise after approximately four weeks of stability at $950. The company indicated current order lead times of three to five weeks, suggesting a gradual firming of demand.

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The company's production segments entered the new year with robust order backlogs. The steel mills unit reported a year-over-year increase in orders of nearly 40%, while the steel products segment saw a rise of approximately 15%.

External Factors and Risk Assessment

Nucor's outlook is contingent on several external variables. The future trajectory of HRC prices, the actual level of steel imports in the coming weeks, and the sustainability of the current order environment are all cited as crucial factors. Important short-term data points will include the weekly HRC price lists and any potential decisions regarding exemptions to Section 232 tariffs.

The company noted a decline in steel imports during 2025 and anticipates import levels will remain at or below current levels throughout 2026, a trend it attributes to the ongoing Section 232 tariffs. However, a note of caution was introduced by an investment bank on January 28, warning of potential competitive pressure from lower-priced imports originating in Southeast Asia and Brazil that could enter the U.S. market as early as February. Such shipments, along with possible tariff exclusions, present a risk to domestic HRC pricing.

Broader industry forecasts suggest a moderate recovery. The World Steel Association expects global steel demand to grow by roughly 1.3% in 2026, while Fitch Ratings projects a slight single-digit percentage increase in U.S. steel consumption for the year.