Nvidia's $124 Billion Order Book Meets a Market Asking Hard Questions About the Next Phase
Published on 07/01/2026 at 12:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers are extraordinary by any measure. Nvidia posted $81.6 billion in quarterly revenue, up 85 percent year over year, and its annual top line has swelled to $215.9 billion, almost entirely from data center sales. The board has authorized an $80 billion share buyback and quadrupled the quarterly dividend to $0.25. Yet the stock sits at €175.22, roughly 13 percent below its May high, and shed more than nine percent over the past month. Even a record quarter triggered a sell-off.
CEO Jensen Huang has publicly conceded he cannot reconcile the share price decline with the underlying business performance. That disconnect — between operational perfection and market hesitation — defines Nvidia’s position halfway through 2026.
The Vera Rubin Pipeline Opens a Window
The tension may not last. Independent research firm SemiAnalysis projects that Nvidia could beat Wall Street’s data center revenue consensus by approximately 20 percent in the second half of fiscal 2027. The catalyst is the Vera Rubin platform, which entered full production on June 1, 2026. Earlier bottlenecks in HBM4 memory chips have been fully resolved, and wafer inventories were pre-built, clearing the path for a sharp volume ramp.
Nvidia has also streamlined the platform’s design. The originally planned four-chip configuration for Rubin Ultra was replaced by a smaller variant with roughly half the footprint, boosting performance per token for hyperscalers and accelerating the production ramp. First deliveries are slated for the autumn, reaching eight major cloud partners including AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, Oracle Cloud, CoreWeave and Lambda.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?
The Other Side of the Coin: China and GPU Rentals
The bullish outlook is not without countercurrents. China — once a $4.6 billion quarterly data center revenue stream in the year-ago period — has shrunk to near zero in the first quarter of fiscal 2027. Huang acknowledged that Nvidia has effectively ceded the advanced AI chip market on the mainland to domestic players such as Huawei.
Separately, the hourly rental price for a B200 GPU in the public cloud fell from $6.11 at the end of May to $4.22 by June 21, a 31 percent drop. Market participants interpret that as evidence that cloud capacity is being built out faster than new AI projects come online, creating near-term pricing pressure.
Inference and Agentic AI: A Demand Multiplier Under Construction
The market’s caution may stem from a structural shift underway in the AI landscape. The first phase of the current boom was built on training large language models, a compute-intensive task that plays directly to Nvidia’s strengths. The industry is now pivoting toward inference and agentic AI, where memory, CPUs and cost per inference step become more central.
CFO Colette Kress pushed back against the notion that custom chips will commoditize Nvidia’s hardware, arguing the opposite. Agentic AI — software that autonomously thinks, acts and iterates — requires far more compute per task. A single agent breaks down a goal into steps, uses tools, makes decisions and monitors results while running continuously in the background. That creates a durable, elevated inference load. If agentic AI scales as Nvidia expects, the demand for compute, memory, networking and power could rise substantially.
Huang has declared an “inflection point of inference” and predicted that the inference market will eventually surpass training. The bull case in its purest form holds that inference will not replace training demand but sit on top of it.
Delivery Commitments Signal Long-Term Conviction
The forward planning data supports that view. Speaking at the Bank of America Global Technology Conference in June 2026, Kress pegged Nvidia’s delivery commitments at roughly $124 billion. Companies do not lock in nine-figure supply volumes years ahead unless they are confident about demand. Huang has also said that cumulative demand for Blackwell and Vera Rubin systems could reach at least $1 trillion by 2027, double the projection from a year earlier.
Nvidia at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The second-half narrative for 2026 resembles what drove the stock in 2025: accelerating revenue growth, stable margins and hyperscaler demand outstripping supply. Yet investors remain wary, citing concerns about an AI bubble, the cyclical nature of industry financing and rising geopolitical tensions.
Technically, the stock is neither in panic nor euphoria. The RSI sits at 46.4, and the share price is about seven percent above its 200-day moving average of €163.92. The consensus analyst price target of $264.53 (approximately €303.80 for the US listing) implies upside of over 50 percent from current levels.
The inference era has arrived. Nvidia has built the infrastructure, filled the order books and has the next platform ready. Whether the market will accept its own logic by year-end depends less on the fundamentals — which remain robust — than on whether investors choose to trust the trajectory.
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