Nvidia’s Growth Slowdown Masks a Deeper Pivot Into Robotics and Packaging
Published on 07/26/2026 at 13:22 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The market’s relationship with Nvidia has entered an awkward phase. The chipmaker continues to smash revenue records, yet its share price tells a more cautious story. On Friday, the stock closed at €182.00, down 0.80%, and sits roughly 10% below the 52-week high hit in May. For a company that delivered gains of 239% in 2023, 171% in 2024, and 39% in 2025, the 13.55% advance so far in 2026 feels almost pedestrian.
That deceleration is not a reflection of operational weakness. Nvidia’s second quarter of fiscal 2026, which ended on April 26, saw revenue surge 85% year-over-year to $81.6 billion, comfortably beating Wall Street’s already elevated forecasts. The data center segment alone generated $75 billion, up 92% from a year earlier. The issue is simply one of compounding: analysts project revenue growth of roughly 219% between fiscal 2026 and 2029 — extraordinary for any company, but a sharp comedown from the 700% expansion of the prior three years.
A $1.5 Billion Bet on Arizona Packaging
Against that backdrop, Nvidia has been quietly reinforcing its supply chain. The company signed a $1.5 billion contract with Amkor Technology to expand advanced packaging and testing capacity at Amkor’s Arizona facility. The prepayment is designed to ease bottlenecks in high-density interconnects, which have become one of the most constrained points in AI hardware production. While small relative to Nvidia’s broader capital commitments, the deal is strategically significant: packaging capacity has emerged as a critical chokepoint as demand for complex AI chips outstrips supply.
The Korean Mega-Deal and a $950 Billion Alliance
That Arizona move was overshadowed by a far larger announcement at the AI Summit in San Francisco, where South Korean industrial groups and US technology firms cemented cooperation agreements worth a combined $950 billion. Nvidia is the central partner alongside the SK Group, contributing $500 billion of that total. The centerpiece is a Vera Rubin AI factory with up to two gigawatts of capacity, which SK Telecom and Nvidia plan to build by 2027. SK Hynix is simultaneously developing the next generation of HBM memory chips with Nvidia, while Samsung signed a $200 billion memorandum with Broadcom covering memory and foundry capacity through 2030.
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South Korean internet giant Naver is also involved, partnering with investor Brookfield on a $10 billion AI data center. Nvidia is contributing $1 billion of that sum, conditional on Naver securing the remaining $9 billion in financing — a model the chipmaker has previously used with partners including CoreWeave, Nebius, and OpenAI. Additional collaborations include a robotics and autonomous driving tie-up with Hyundai Motor and a joint research lab with KAIST.
Japan’s Physical AI Push
While the Korean deals grabbed headlines, Jensen Huang spent the same week in Japan meeting with the CEOs of Toyota, Fujitsu, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Fanuc, and Kioxia. The agenda: deploying “physical AI” in factories. Three major robotics and automation companies — Kawasaki, Fanuc, and Yaskawa — are already using Nvidia’s technology. “The next frontier of AI lies in the physical world, and that is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for Japan,” Huang said.
Nvidia has adjusted its reporting structure to highlight these new growth drivers. The edge computing segment, which includes robot training, grew 29% last quarter. But for now, the data center business remains the primary engine, and the robotics initiative is viewed as a long-term bet that will take years to fully materialize.
Huang’s Defense and Moody’s Warning
Huang pushed back against concerns that the chip boom is nearing its end. “This time is different because demand is industrially driven,” he said, arguing it does not fluctuate seasonally. He estimated the semiconductor industry needs to grow five- to tenfold over the next decade. A bubble will eventually burst, he acknowledged, but not anytime soon, as shortages of chips, land, and energy continue to constrain supply.
Those remarks come as Moody’s warns about the financial strain on major AI investors. The combined capital expenditures of Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, and CoreWeave are projected to hit $785 billion in 2026 and exceed $1 trillion by 2027. For Nvidia, that is a near-term tailwind — but it also underscores how tightly its own growth is tied to the spending appetite of a handful of hyperscale customers.
Valuation and the Order Book
Despite the slower share price appreciation, Nvidia’s valuation remains modest by historical standards. The forward price-to-earnings ratio sits below the Nasdaq-100 average, and at 23 times expected earnings, investors are paying no premium for the long-term potential of physical AI. Analysts project annual earnings growth of roughly 44% over the coming years.
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The order book provides a powerful buffer. Confirmed demand totals $1 trillion through 2027, building on Huang’s earlier estimate of roughly $500 billion in AI chip orders for 2025 and 2026 combined. That backlog underscores the depth of customer commitments, even as the pace of new orders naturally slows from the frenzied levels of the past two years.
Wall Street remains broadly bullish. Morgan Stanley reiterated its overweight rating with a $288 price target, citing three growth pillars: AI labs, hyperscalers, and enterprise/government customers. KeyBanc recently raised its target to $330. The analyst consensus stands at roughly $304, well above current levels. Institutional investors increased their positions in the first quarter, even as insiders sold about $410.6 million worth of shares over 90 days — a pattern considered routine for a company of this size. The board has also authorized an $80 billion share buyback program and raised the quarterly dividend from one cent to 25 cents per share, signaling confidence in the company’s capital strength.
The August 26 Test
All eyes are now on Nvidia’s next quarterly report, due around August 26. Management has guided for revenue of roughly $91 billion in the current quarter, representing 95% year-over-year growth. The report will likely determine whether the stock’s 2026 slowdown reflects a genuine cooling in AI infrastructure spending or merely a pause after years of exceptional gains. Until then, the Japanese robotics partnerships and the multi-year order backlog remain the optimists’ strongest cards, while competitive pressure in the data center market continues to draw close scrutiny.
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