Nvidia's Two-Chip Pivot: Technical Hurdles Meet a Half-Trillion-Dollar Order Backlog
Published on 07/05/2026 at 05:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nvidia finds itself in a peculiar spot. Demand for its AI chips is so furious that the company has built an order backlog worth half a trillion US dollars — yet the laws of physics are forcing a last-minute design retreat on its most advanced architecture. The challenge has shifted from dreaming up faster chips to actually producing them in the volumes the market expects.
The latest iteration of the "Vera Rubin" platform, slated for production in the second half of this year, was originally conceived as a four-chip design. But substrate warping — a physical deformation problem in advanced packaging — has compelled Nvidia to scale back to a two-chip layout for the high-end "Rubin Ultra" model. Industry chatter suggests the company is grappling with the limits of three-nanometer-class fabrication just as it tries to maintain its torrid growth pace.
None of this has dented customer appetite. The order book, which now exceeds $500 billion, locks in full factory utilisation deep into 2026. Analysts expect revenue for the 2026 fiscal year to reach nearly $216 billion, with the lion's share — roughly $194 billion — coming from the data centre business. As one strategist put it, Nvidia has effectively sold its future in advance.
Yet the stock has stalled. At Friday's close of €171.98, the shares sit 15% below the May record of €202.50. The price is hovering just under the 50-day moving average near €181, while the 200-day line at €164.21 provides a floor. The relative strength index stands at a neutral 43 — neither overbought nor oversold — leaving traders waiting for a catalyst.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?
That catalyst may come from the manufacturing line. Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia's key production partner, reports mid-July, offering the first hard data on whether the Rubin ramp is on track. Separately, Nvidia will make its Omniverse platform free for production use ahead of the SIGGRAPH conference on July 19, a push to broaden its software ecosystem.
Away from the chip floor, Nvidia is reshaping its financial model. The company recently placed $25 billion in bonds, its first major debt issuance in five years, using low rates to optimise its capital structure. More tellingly, it launched what it calls the "AI Compute Partnership" — a program that directly finances emerging cloud providers. These firms use the funds to buy Nvidia's coveted GPUs, then share revenue with Nvidia or agree to buy back any underused hardware. The logic is clear: reduce reliance on the tech giants who are increasingly designing their own silicon.
That move mirrors other experiments in recurring revenue. New contracts with Sharon AI and Firmus Technologies will see Nvidia supply up to 210,000 graphics processors. In return, Nvidia collects ongoing royalties based on the partners' cloud sales. Firmus is building a 360-megawatt campus on the Indonesian island of Batam to house as many as 170,000 of those chips.
The physical AI push also extends to security. A partnership with surveillance firm Verkada has boosted video-analysis search accuracy by 68% using Nvidia's compute power. And in a sign of how far the company is reaching, it is recruiting software architects for "Space-1," a project to place data centres in low Earth orbit.
Nvidia at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Despite the recent share price drift, Wall Street remains heavily bullish. Thirty-seven analysts rate the stock a strong buy, with a consensus price target of $309. Baird sees upside potential of over 155%. Evercore notes that a $80 billion share buyback programme and a dependable dividend add a safety net for patient investors.
The consensus target among analysts covering the Amsterdam-listed shares is €263.59 — an implied gain of 53.3% from current levels. But that arithmetic depends on Nvidia proving it can deliver the Rubin generation in the quantities the market demands. If the autumn production ramp goes smoothly, the consolidation that has gripped the stock since May could break to the upside. If not, the half-trillion-dollar backlog will feel more like a promise than a guarantee.
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