Nvidia Stock Sinks 17% as HBM3E Bottleneck Threatens Blackwell B200 Rollout
28.06.2026 - 22:23:43 | boerse-global.de
Nvidia shares closed Friday at €168.80, capping a week that saw the stock shed over 7%. That puts the chipmaker nearly 17% below the May record high — and squarely in a territory where the company’s towering fundamentals are colliding with the physical limits of the supply chain. The culprit isn’t demand, which remains ferocious. It’s high-bandwidth memory, specifically the latest HBM3E generation, and the scramble to secure enough of it for the upcoming Blackwell B200 graphics processor.
The memory bottleneck is stark: suppliers SK Hynix and Micron Technology are already sold out for all of 2026. Nvidia controls as much as 90% of the AI-accelerator market, but that dominance means little when the components that make its chips indispensable are in critically short supply. The production of HBM is resource-intensive, pushing prices higher across the electronics industry. For Nvidia, the immediate task is locking down long-term deliveries through intense negotiations with partners — a logistical parry that will test management’s operational mettle alongside its engineering prowess.
Yet the stock’s swoon also reflects a more subtle trap: the sheer weight of expectations. Nvidia regularly delivers blowout numbers, as it did in May 2026 when data-center revenue nearly doubled. The stock fell anyway. Analysts still see massive upside — the average price target of €262.37 implies a gain of more than 50% — but the market is asking a different question: how much of that future is already priced in? With a 30-day annualized volatility near 38%, every macro data release carries outsize weight.
This week brings three major tests. Tuesday’s JOLTS job openings, Wednesday’s ISM manufacturing PMI, and Thursday’s June employment report — economists expect 172,000 new payrolls — will shape the rate outlook. A hotter-than-expected number could reignite inflation fears, hitting richly valued tech names hardest. Add Fed Chair Warsh’s speech in Portugal on Wednesday, and the macro crosscurrents are impossible to ignore. At the same time, Nvidia will be on the road, presenting at the AWS Summit in Washington and the Davos Tech Summit in Switzerland.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?
On the charts, the stock is clinging to a critical line. Friday’s close at €168.80 sits just above the 100-day moving average at €168.66, which will be tested Monday. Roughly 3% lower, the 200-day moving average at €163.66 offers the next real floor for bulls. Meanwhile, the 50-day line has flipped into resistance near €181. The relative-strength index at 38.2 is approaching oversold territory — a zone that historically has drawn buyers, though it hasn’t triggered a classic signal yet.
Competitive pressures are also creeping into the narrative. AMD and Intel are stepping up their game, while hyperscalers like Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft are developing their own chips. That could eventually clip Nvidia’s margins. On the positive side, the US government has approved H200 chip sales to China again — a market Nvidia can tap, even if the most advanced architectures remain off-limits. Chinese AI firm DeepSeek has already demonstrated strong benchmark performance using H200-class hardware.
Beyond the current turbulence, Nvidia is laying groundwork for the next growth wave: robotics. The company isn’t building robots itself; it’s providing the infrastructure — platforms like Isaac GR00T for humanoid robots, Jetson Thor hardware, and Halos safety software. Analysts project the humanoid-robot market could reach $200 billion by 2035. It’s a playbook straight from the AI-accelerator era: supply the picks and shovels, not the mine.
Nvidia at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
For now, Nvidia must navigate a two-front challenge. One is physical — the HBM3E shortage that could delay or constrain Blackwell B200 shipments. The other is financial — a stock that has priced in perfection and must now contend with the messy reality of supply chains and macro headwinds. The support level at €163.66 may determine whether this is a correction or something deeper. But the long-term thesis — dominated by AI infrastructure spending, with Goldman Sachs projecting over a trillion dollars from hyperscalers by 2027 — remains intact. The question is whether the stock can keep pace with the story.
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