Oracle’s 21,000 Job Cuts Bolster SAP’s Recovery, but €95 Billion Capex and EU Probe Add Caution
Published on 06/24/2026 at 10:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SAP’s battered shares have managed a tentative bounce from their 52-week floor, lifted by a surprising tailwind from archrival Oracle. The US software giant's decision to slash roughly 21,000 jobs — citing the adoption of new AI technologies — has spurred a rotation out of volatile chip and AI-hardware plays and into established software houses like SAP. Yet the relief is far from complete. Oracle also rattled markets by committing up to €95 billion (adjusted) in capital expenditure for AI infrastructure, stoking fears of margin compression across the sector.
The stock recently touched a new 52-week low of €130.82 before recovering to €133.38. That still represents a decline of roughly a third since the start of the year and leaves the shares nearly 50% below the 2023 high of €266. The distance to the 200-day moving average, currently around €184, underscores a deeply entrenched downtrend. Technically, the RSI sits at 37 — encroaching on oversold territory but lacking a clear reversal signal. The stock also trades about 9% below its 50-day average.
A more positive development comes from Brussels. The European Commission has been probing possible antitrust violations in SAP’s maintenance services since September 2025, threatening a penalty of up to 10% of annual revenue. But that cloud appears to be lifting. The company is now testing concrete concessions with regulators, offering customers greater flexibility in choosing providers and waiving certain fees. If a settlement is reached, the case could close without a fine — and SAP has already said it expects no material financial impact.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Analysts remain strikingly bullish despite the stock’s slide. The average price target among covering institutions stands near €215, implying more than 60% upside from current levels. Bernstein leads the pack with a €276 target, followed by Berenberg at €215 and UBS at €205, both with "Buy" ratings. The consensus view is that the market is underestimating SAP’s transformation into an AI platform and the margin improvements expected in the second half of the year.
The next critical catalyst arrives on July 23, when SAP reports second-quarter and first-half results. The company is currently in a quiet period, with management refraining from commenting on ongoing business. Investors will scrutinize the cloud order backlog — which jumped 20% to €21.9 billion in the first quarter — and the gross margin to determine whether hefty AI investments are translating into paying subscribers.
For now, SAP’s recovery is fragile and conditional. The Oracle-driven industry reshuffle and progress in the EU probe provide support, but the looming €95 billion capex commitment from a key rival and the technical weight of a long-term downtrend leave little room for error. The July 23 earnings release will either validate the analysts’ optimism or deepen the disconnect.
Ad
SAP Stock: New Analysis - 24 June
Fresh SAP information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
