Oracle's AI Agent Ambition Meets a Wall of Skepticism
Published on 04/22/2026 at 15:04 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Oracle is aggressively embedding its database technology into the fabric of the AI revolution, but its ambitious strategy is creating a stark divide between booming financials and mounting investor concerns. The launch of a new AI Database Agent for Google Cloud's Gemini, allowing natural language queries of Oracle databases, exemplifies its push to monetize enterprise AI.
This expansion is part of a broader, costly offensive. Oracle is simultaneously rolling out its "Oracle AI Database@Google Cloud" infrastructure to 15 global regions, with new locations in Mumbai, Frankfurt, London, Sydney, and Tokyo. Plans for Turin and Mexico are slated for the next twelve months. The integration extends to tools like OCI GoldenGate for real-time data migration and connections to Google BigQuery, enabling near-real-time analytics across platforms.
The financial results fueling this expansion are undeniably strong. Oracle's third fiscal quarter saw revenue surge 22% to $17.2 billion, with earnings per share beating analyst expectations. Management highlighted it was the first time in 15 years that both revenue and profit grew by more than a fifth simultaneously. More strikingly, the company's remaining performance obligation (RPO)—contractually committed but not yet recognized revenue—soared by 325% to a record $553 billion.
This massive backlog has caught the eye of Wall Street. Guggenheim Securities analyst John DiFucci recently reiterated Oracle as a "Best Idea for 2026," calling the stock massively undervalued relative to its AI infrastructure potential and maintaining a $400 price target. He estimates that OpenAI alone could eventually account for nearly 30% of Oracle's total revenue, a concentration risk he downplays due to OpenAI's continuous capital raises.
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However, the sheer scale of investment required is triggering alarm. Oracle has outlined capital expenditure plans of $50 billion for AI data centers. A quarterly report earlier this year revealed additional lease commitments of a staggering $248 billion, a disclosure analysts at CreditSights labeled as explosive. This has sparked a shareholder lawsuit alleging Oracle misled investors about the feasibility of its AI investment strategy. Critics fear these expenditures could strain the balance sheet, endanger creditworthiness, and pressure free cash flow long before adequate revenue materializes.
The stock market reflects this tension. While Oracle shares have climbed nearly 19% over the past month to trade around 157.65 euros, they remain far from the 52-week high of 280.70 euros reached last September. Analyst price targets vary wildly, mirroring the core conflict: unprecedented future orders versus rapidly escalating infrastructure costs.
Oracle's strategy is clear. Beyond the Google Cloud partnership, it announced a similar multicloud deal with AWS in mid-April, focusing on "agentic AI" systems that perform tasks autonomously. The new AI Database Agent, available since April 22 and already used by European payment provider Worldline, targets business units without technical expertise, eliminating the need for SQL coding. The company is betting its database dominance will be the foundation for the next wave of enterprise AI.
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Management has set an ambitious revenue target of $90 billion for fiscal year 2027. Hitting that number depends entirely on a seamless translation of massive capacity expansion into paying customers, a high-stakes transition that will determine whether Oracle's AI gamble pays off or buckles under its own financial weight.
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