Original-Research: Cantourage Group SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

Original-Research: Cantourage Group SE - from NuWays AG



14.08.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Cantourage Group SE



     Company Name:                Cantourage Group SE
     ISIN:                        DE000A3DSV01



     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 10.5
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Christian Sandherr



H1 out: Margins over sales is increasingly paying off; chg.



Topic: Cantourage released Q2'26 figures showing a further step-up in
earnings quality. Sales declined yoy on a deliberate exit from low-margin
German volumes, while EBITDA grew 45% yoy.



Q2 sales came in at EUR 21.8m, down 21.9% yoy but up 5.8% qoq (Q1'26: EUR
20.6m), marking the second consecutive quarter of sequential growth.
Importantly, the yoy optic reflects the last hard comparable of the cycle:
Q2'25 (EUR 27.9m) was the peak quarter of the German volume boom, before the
price war in the standard flower segment set in. With Q3'25 and Q4'25 at c.
EUR 19.9m and EUR 18.6m respectively, group sales should return to yoy growth
from Q3'26e onwards (eNuW).



Geographic rebalancing. Germany contributed EUR 10.1m (-56% yoy), or 46% of
group sales, versus 84% in Q2'25, as management has largely discontinued
low-margin strains (oversupply + significant market price reductions).
Importantly, Q2 should mark the floor, with management pointing towards
sequential growth as premium supply expands. Mind you, the ramp is supply-
rather than demand-constrained: premium volumes require biomass that takes
time to scale, while new form factors (edibles, extracts) await import
permits currently taking 7-8 weeks instead of the statutory 10-14 working
days, pushing first batches into Q4.



The UK grew 146% yoy to EUR 9.6m (ramp up of its clinic) and is now
effectively at parity with the home market, while Poland tripled to EUR 2.1m.
For the first time, the majority of group revenue was generated outside
Germany, an important de-risking event in the equity story: the German price
cycle and the still unresolved domestic regulatory debate are no longer the
dominant swing factor for group earnings. Management has flagged France,
Spain and Italy as potential next entries over the medium term.



gramz. is an early validation of the own-brand strategy. The house brand
launched in Q2 generated some EUR 0.5m sales in its first partial quarter with
initial batches selling out. While immaterial in absolute terms, it
underpins that Cantourage is able to successfully distribute own rather than
only third-party products.



All eyes on profitability. The gross margin expanded by 7.9pp yoy to 36.4%,
the clearest evidence that the strategy shift (focus on premium flowers) is
working out well. Q2 EBITDA rose 45% yoy to EUR 2.9m, a 13.1% margin (+6.1pp
yoy, +2.5pp qoq). With this, H1'26 EBITDA thus stands at EUR 5.1m (12.0%
margin), already well ahead of our old 9.8% FY26e.



Two short-term catalysts ahead. Management is expected to release a FY26
guidance which should be carried by a high FY EBITDA margin, in our view.
Mind you, FY25p margin stood at 6.1%. Cantourage should also release the
final consolidated FY25 report early September, decreasing risk discounts
that are likely baked into the current share price.



At 6.2x FY26e and 4.8x FY27e EV/EBITDA, the valuation of Cantourage remains
attractive. For reference, Organigram acquired Sanity Group at c. 4.2x
EV/sales for a wholesale-only, barely profitable asset, against c. 0.7x for
Cantourage with a double-digit and rising EBITDA margin. We confirm our BUY
rating with a slightly raised EUR 10.50 PT (old: EUR 10.00) based on DCF.



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Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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