Original-Research: MHP Hotel AG (von NuWays AG): BUY

Original-Research: MHP Hotel AG - von NuWays AG



07.05.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Einstufung von NuWays AG zu MHP Hotel AG



     Unternehmen:               MHP Hotel AG
     ISIN:                      DE000A3E5C24



     Anlass der Studie:         Update
     Empfehlung:                BUY
     Kursziel:                  EUR 3.5
     Kursziel auf Sicht von:    12 months
     Letzte Ratingänderung:
     Analyst:                   Philipp Sennewald



MOOONS goes Germany, final FY25 out; chg.



Yesterday, MHP provided the market with two news items: (1) the company
announced the first German MOOONS hotel & (2) released its FY25 annual
report. In detail:



MOOONS is coming to Frankfurt. MHP has signed a long-term lease with Rock
Capital Group for a 200+ room upscale lifestyle hotel in central Frankfurt,
opening in 2029. The property will be converted from an office building with
two additional floors added, explaining the ~3-year development timeline.
Management guides for stabilised annual sales of EUR 12-14m at an 8-10% EBITDA
margin, implying stabilised EBITDA of EUR 1.1-1.4m. As with the original
MOOONS in Vienna, the margin profile is set to be structurally superior to
MHP's franchise portfolio: by cutting out the franchise partner entirely,
MOOONS retains the royalty and system fees that would otherwise flow to
Marriott, Hilton or Hyatt, directly boosting bottom-line conversion. In
fact, the Vienna hotel is already posting 11% EBITDA margins, making the
management projection appear rather conservative. On top of that, the lean
F&B model, with a reduced footprint and lower staffing requirements, is
explicitly designed as a margin driver rather than a cost centre.



In yesterday's CC, CEO Frehse added further conviction to the MOOONS growth
story, stating that two additional projects beyond Frankfurt are currently
in advanced planning, and did not rule out that MOOONS could one day evolve
into its own franchise model, which would effectively turn MHP from a pure
franchisee into a franchisor. That optionality is not reflected in our
estimates and could represent a significant re-rating catalyst. RevPar in
Frankfurt (market estimates) is forecasted to grow 11% through 2029
(Eastdil/PMA), and operational synergies with the nearby JW Marriott via the
YMCS platform should support the unit economics.



In addition to this, the FY25 report was released, showing sales in line
with the implication from the Q4 trading statement at EUR 178m (+10.6% yoy).
Adj. EBITDA (ex. Conrad) increased 33% yoy to EUR 8.0m, driven by operating
leverage especially in connection with the ramp up of the Koenigshof and JW
Marriott (post-renovation). On hotel KPIs: stripping out the Conrad ramp-up
effect, adj. RevPar rose 6% to EUR 179 and adj. occupancy held stable at 78%,
a strong result given the tough comp. with the Euros and Munich concert
series (e.g. Adele, Taylor Swift) in 2024.



Given strong Q1 momentum (sales up 25% to EUR 41.5m), the FY guidance of EUR
225m sales (eNuW: EUR 227m) and >EUR 10m reported EBITDA (eNuW: EUR 10.2m) was
confirmed. In our view, the release, especially the MOOONS rollout, fully
confirms the investment case as MHP transitions from a franchisee-heavy
business model into a multi-pillar platform operator.



At 5.1x FY26e EV/EBITDA the stock continues to trade at highly undemanding
levels. We hence confirm BUY, PT raised to EUR 3.50 (old: EUR 3.30), based on
DCF.



Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=0b87d42ab61258542ca17bd7b370d5f2
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier
downloaden: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed



Kontakt für Rückfragen:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++



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2322896 07.05.2026 CET/CEST