Qualcomm's Long Horizons Test Investor Patience as Analyst Targets Rise and Shares Fall
Published on 06/30/2026 at 18:07 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Qualcomm is living a strange dichotomy. Wall Street analysts keep raising their price targets on the chipmaker after a bold strategic roadmap, yet the stock continues to slide. The shares have shed roughly 17 percent over the past 30 days, trading at around €164, and have lost nearly 27 percent from the 52-week high of $222.90 set in late May. The 50-day moving average near €174 has been broken to the downside — a technical signal that adds to the bearish sentiment.
The optimism on the Street stems from Qualcomm’s Investor Day, where management laid out an aggressive vision for 2029. The company now targets $40 billion in revenue outside its core smartphone business — roughly double the previous goal. Within that, the data-center pivot is the centrepiece: Qualcomm expects an additional $15 billion from its new “Dragonfly” chip architecture, which vertically stacks chips to reduce latency. The first generation will enter data centers next year, with broad commercial availability slated for 2028. The technology is later expected to migrate into smartphones, allowing users to run complex AI models locally without draining the battery. In the automotive segment, the pipeline of won projects has swelled to $65 billion, with segment revenue projected to hit $10 billion by 2029.
Analysts have responded with a flurry of target upgrades. Benchmark’s Cody Acree maintained a Buy rating and a $300 price target, raised after the Investor Day. DZ Bank upgraded the stock to Buy with a $265 target. Even the skeptics are adjusting: Barclays’ Thomas O’Malley reiterated a Sell recommendation but hiked his target from $150 to $245. The average consensus among 32 analysts tracked by TipRanks sits at $219, with an overall Hold rating. Mizuho raised its target from $170 to $210, also with a Hold. BofA lifted its target to $220 but kept an Underperform rating, warning that the growth initiatives still need to prove themselves.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Qualcomm?
That caution is not unfounded. Barclays described Qualcomm as a “Show-Me Story in a highly competitive market” — a company that must deliver on ambitious promises before the market will reward it. The Dragonfly processor, the flagship for data centers, is not expected to go into production until the second half of 2028, leaving investors three years before a major proof point. Meanwhile, Bernstein published a comparison with Nvidia in humanoid robotics, giving Nvidia a Buy rating with a $315 target while keeping Qualcomm at Hold with $235. The reason: Nvidia’s software ecosystem and robotics platform are more complete, even if Qualcomm offers a streamlined workflow.
Nearer-term catalysts do exist. Qualcomm has signed custom-chip contracts with two unnamed hyperscalers, each expected to generate more than $1 billion in revenue starting in late 2026 and into 2027. These contracts will serve as key tests of Qualcomm’s AI strategy long before the Dragonfly chips ship in volume. The automotive pipeline, at $65 billion, also provides a buffer as the smartphone segment’s share of revenue is expected to shrink below one-third by 2029, according to Mizuho.
For now, the market is demanding hard evidence. The relative strength index sits at 41, indicating no oversold condition but also no buying pressure. Bernstein warned that a weaker smartphone outlook could weigh on near-term earnings while the data-center business is still too small to compensate. Qualcomm is set to report fiscal third-quarter results on July 29. That will be the first real chance for management to show whether the hyperscaler contracts are taking shape and whether smartphone weakness is already bleeding into the numbers — long before the 2029 vision becomes reality.
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