Rheinmetall Charts a Dual Course: Japan Expansion Meets State-Backed Rivalry
Published on 06/23/2026 at 14:17 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Rheinmetall is threading a needle of strategic opportunity and competitive risk. The German defence group is pushing into Japan's nascent arms industry with plans for a first-ever armaments factory, while on home soil the government has taken a 40% stake in rival KNDS — a move that reshuffles the playing field for future contracts. The stock, which traded around €1,184–€1,188, gaining 0.5–0.8% on the day, has been trying to shake off a brutal year that has wiped roughly 26% off its value since January.
Insider buying has added a note of conviction. ATP Holding GmbH, an entity closely tied to CEO Armin Papperger, scooped up Rheinmetall shares worth around €4 million on 22 June at an average price of €1,161.46 each. The purchase came just as the company secured another big-ticket Bundeswehr order. The military has ordered 23 "Büffel" armoured recovery vehicles in a deal valued at roughly €360 million, with delivery scheduled by mid-2029. The contract replaces systems donated to Ukraine and underscores the group's swelling order backlog, which stood at around €73 billion at the end of March.
The Japanese foray marks a significant pivot. Rheinmetall is currently represented there only as an automotive supplier through its Pierburg subsidiary. Now, according to Japanese media reports, the company is preparing talks with local partners to set up a joint venture for the production of defence equipment directly in the country. The move would allow Rheinmetall to capitalise on rising military spending across the Asia-Pacific region — a market that has so far remained largely closed to European arms makers.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?
Analysts at Oddo BHF have taken note. The firm upgraded Rheinmetall to "Outperform" on 22 June, setting a price target of €1,670. Analyst Yan Derocles described the stock as "growth at a discount", pointing to a valuation gap of more than 20% compared to the European defence sector average. However, the target was slightly reduced from a prior level, reflecting near-term uncertainties such as diplomatic tensions around Iran and fears of a future order slowdown — concerns Derocles believes are overblown given the structural demand from Europe's rearmament programmes.
Technically, the shares remain under pressure. The current price is roughly 25% below the 200-day moving average of €1,577, and about 40% off the 52-week high. Chart watchers are eyeing the resistance zone around €1,240; a sustained break above that level would close out the weeks-long base-building pattern. Meanwhile, the broader market mood is souring. The DAX index is weakening, and Germany's BDI industry association has slashed its growth forecast for 2026 to just 0.4%, adding a further headwind.
The state's entry into KNDS — maker of the Leopard and Boxer armoured vehicles — injects a new layer of complexity. Rheinmetall and KNDS are sometimes partners, sometimes competitors on joint projects, and the government now sits on the other side of the table. That changes the competitive dynamic just as Rheinmetall tries to leverage its global ambitions. Whether the stock can close the gap to the €1,670 target will hinge on how swiftly investors look past these political uncertainties and focus on the underlying demand wave sweeping European defence.
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Rheinmetall Stock: New Analysis - 23 June
Fresh Rheinmetall information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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