Rheinmetall Loses a Frigate, Loads Up on Artillery, and Pins Hopes on Ankara
Published on 07/04/2026 at 20:43 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The abrupt cancellation of Germany’s F126 frigate programme has erased a €20 billion quarterly order target from Rheinmetall’s books, but the defence group is scrambling to patch the damage with a stream of artillery and air-defence contracts. Chief executive Armin Papperger is simultaneously leaning on politicians ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara, demanding binding procurement guarantees before the company commits further to capacity expansion.
The financial hit is immediate. Rheinmetall had set a goal of €20 billion in order intake for the second quarter—a record that is now off the table. Management now expects a low double-digit billion figure instead. Revenue growth for the period remains robust, with the company confirming a year-on-year increase of more than 60%. The frigate cancellation alone could slice up to €300 million off annual sales by 2026 if no replacement work is found. The board is confident it can offset that shortfall quickly, noting that the programme would have contributed less than 3% to the group’s medium-term target for 2030.
To cushion the blow, Rheinmetall has locked in a batch of fresh orders. An international client—Italy, which becomes the first NATO country to deploy the system—has ordered four Skynex air-defence units in a deal worth several hundred million euros. Separately, a high double-digit million euro contract for 155mm artillery shells and propelling charges was signed with Ukraine at the end of June. Deliveries are due to be completed by the first quarter of 2027.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?
Investors have responded cautiously even as the stock has bounced. Rheinmetall shares closed Friday at €1,097, capping a 16.63% weekly gain from the 52-week low of €902.50. Yet the year-to-date decline still stands at 31.5%. The record high of €1,995, set in September 2025, remains a distant memory. The annualised volatility of 69.1% and a relative-strength index of 46.5 underline the persistent nervousness in the name—neither oversold nor overbought, but carrying plenty of technical room for a further recovery if fundamentals deliver.
The political dimension adds another layer. Papperger is using the Ankara summit to push for firm procurement commitments and upfront payments, arguing that only concrete government backing will justify the massive investments needed in new production lines and future technologies. The NATO gathering could determine whether the recent rally holds or fizzles. Compounding the picture, the German defence ministry is exploring the possibility of producing US systems such as Tomahawk cruise missiles and PAC-3 interceptors under licence in Germany—a move that would directly benefit Rheinmetall.
Rheinmetall’s overall backlog stood at roughly €73 billion at the end of the first quarter, providing a buffer while management works to replace the lost frigate business. A detailed update on the order situation is due in the coming weeks, and the final second-quarter figures will be released on August 6, 2026.
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