Rheinmetall’s €60.5 Million Truck Order Can’t Mask the Budget Storm Ahead
Published on 07/28/2026 at 14:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Rheinmetall shares extended their recovery on Tuesday, climbing 3.19 percent to €1,093.60 and leading the DAX gainers, after closing Monday at €1,059.80 on the back of a fresh Bundeswehr contract. The defense contractor has now rallied more than 9 percent over seven trading sessions and over 12 percent in the past month, yet the stock remains 29.56 percent in the red since the start of the year — a stark reminder of how brutal the first-half correction was.
The latest catalyst comes from Berlin, where the Bundeswehr ordered 56 additional Elefant 2 heavy-duty transporters from Rheinmetall in a deal worth €60.5 million gross. Deliveries through subsidiary RMMV are scheduled for 2026 and 2027. The order extends a framework agreement originally signed in 2018, which covered up to 137 vehicles. With 32 units already delivered to the armed forces by early 2025, the total commitment now stands at 137 Elefant 2 trucks — each packing 680 horsepower, a permissible towing weight of 135 tonnes, and a top speed of 89 kilometers per hour.
For investors, the contract signals that Germany’s military procurement pipeline remains open despite mounting pressure on other spending lines. And that pressure is considerable. Bloomberg reported that the federal government plans to slash ammunition expenditure in its 2027 budget draft to €9.6 billion, down from €11 billion this year. While the overall defense budget is still slated to rise through 2030, priorities are shifting toward drones, air defense, and digital warfare. The defense ministry insists munitions procurement remains a priority, but for Rheinmetall — where artillery ammunition is a core business — the proposed cut represents a tangible risk that has weighed on the stock for months.
The headwinds don’t stop there. China imposed export restrictions on 14 European companies, including Rheinmetall. And the abrupt halt of the F126 frigate construction program sent the stock plunging 19 percent in a single session — a shock that came after Rheinmetall had positioned itself to rescue the project. On a brighter note, TKMS has exited the bidding process for German Naval Yards Kiel, leaving Rheinmetall as the sole remaining suitor for the shipyard.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?
Analyst sentiment remains surprisingly constructive given the noise. Of the analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it a Buy against just four Holds. Deutsche Bank trimmed its price target from €2,100 to €1,800 but maintained a Buy rating, arguing that the August quarterly results should confirm an acceleration in growth. Berenberg cut its target to €1,600 from €1,750, also keeping a Buy, while Bernstein held firm at €1,900 with an Outperform rating. The Deutsche Bank analyst described the recent weakness as overdone, calling it an attractive entry point.
The market capitalization now stands at €48.13 billion — a far cry from the roughly €4.2 billion valuation before the war in Ukraine, underscoring the structural re-rating the stock has undergone. Export license data from the Informationsstelle Militarisierung adds further context: German arms export approvals surged to €13.87 billion in the first half of 2026, compared with €3.64 billion in the same period last year, with roughly €2.5 billion of that destined for Ukraine.
Technically, the stock remains below its 50-day moving average of €1,112.58 and even further from the 200-day line, suggesting the recovery has only partially retraced the earlier losses. From its October 2025 record high of €2,007, the shares are still down nearly 47 percent, and market watchers consider the long-term downtrend intact.
Rheinmetall at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
All eyes now turn to August 6, when Rheinmetall releases its half-year results. The numbers will need to demonstrate that the business model can withstand shifting political priorities in Berlin — and that the growth story analysts are betting on is more than just a hope pinned on a few truck orders.
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Rheinmetall Stock: New Analysis - 28 July
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