Rheinmetall's Ammunition Flows, Deals Pile Up, but the Stock Remains Under Pressure

The defense contractor has rarely been busier on the operational front, yet the market is proving hard to win back. In the first two weeks of July alone, Rheinmetall announced seven separate contracts or cooperative agreements spanning everything from artillery shells to space-based surveillance. On Friday, the stock managed a 1.85 percent gain to close at EUR 978.00, but the year-to-date deficit stands at a painful 37.03 percent. The 52-week high of EUR 1,995.00 from September 2025 is now little more than a distant memory, and the market capitalization has shrunk to EUR 44.70 billion.

What is weighing most heavily on investor sentiment is a single event from last month: the cancellation of the F126 frigate program by the German defense ministry. In an ad-hoc disclosure in early July, Rheinmetall warned that the loss of that contract could shave up to EUR 300 million from 2026 revenue. That blow has overshadowed a cascade of positive news that followed. On July 7, the company signed a memorandum of understanding with Lockheed Martin to co-produce ATACMS missiles in Unterlüß. Two days later came a contract with MBDA Germany and the federal procurement office BAAINBw for a high-energy naval laser system valued in the mid-triple-digit million euro range. Kuwait followed on July 10 with an order for MASS decoy launchers for its naval forces.

The deal-making accelerated further in the second week. On July 13, Rheinmetall secured a roughly EUR 1 billion share of the Raytheon UK-led "Omnia Training" consortium, which will digitize British army combat training over 15 years. That same day, its MAN Military Vehicles subsidiary took over responsibility for the InterRoC VII research project on highly automated, interoperable military convoys. On July 14, the company announced the first delivery of artillery ammunition from the new Unterlüß plant — a low five-digit number of 155-mm RH1412 projectiles destined for Ukraine, with more than half already shipped and the remainder due before year-end. Simultaneously, it began training British forces on autonomous HX logistics vehicles. On July 15, Rheinmetall and Norway's Space Norway signed a memorandum of understanding to explore space-based maritime surveillance using C-band SAR satellites.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?

The Unterlüß facility is central to Rheinmetall's long-term strategy. The company aims to ramp up annual production capacity to around 1.5 million artillery shells by 2030, and bringing manufacturing in-house reduces reliance on external suppliers. Market observers view the parallel push into space and autonomous convoys as a hedge against the evolving nature of conflict, where drones and electronic warfare are increasingly dominant.

Technically, the stock is showing signs of being oversold. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 37.5, a level that historically has preceded bounces. The EUR 960.00 mark has recently emerged as short-term support, and the June 25 low of EUR 902.50 appears to be holding for now. Still, the chart remains deeply damaged: the shares have shed roughly 51 percent from their 2025 peak.

The next major catalyst comes on August 6, when Rheinmetall publishes its first-half report. Investors will be watching how the F126 cancellation actually flows through to revenue and margins, and whether the flood of international orders — from London, Kuwait, Oslo and elsewhere — is already boosting the order books in the current financial year. Until those hard numbers land, the disconnect between a company that is signing contracts at a furious pace and a stock that cannot shake off a bearish mood will remain the defining feature of the Rheinmetall story.

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