Rheinmetall's Naval Woes Overshadow ATACMS Advance as Backlog Hits €73 Billion
Published on 07/09/2026 at 17:30 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Rheinmetall is carrying a record order book worth €73 billion but has seen its stock shed nearly half its value from a September 2025 peak. The contradiction reflects two distinct marine-sector disappointments that have rattled investor confidence, even as the group secures a landmark missile-production partnership with Lockheed Martin.
The first naval blow came when the German defense ministry rejected Rheinmetall's roughly €18 billion offer for the F128 frigate successor program, awarding the contract instead to rival TKMS. The decision forced the company to slash its second-quarter order target from €20 billion to a low double-digit billion figure. Then, separately, the ministry halted the F126 frigate program altogether, citing exploding costs — a move that could cost Rheinmetall several hundred million euros in lost revenue this year alone. The two setbacks have injected a dose of realism into what was once a perpetually rising defence stock.
On the strategic front, however, the group is pushing ahead aggressively. At the NATO summit in Ankara on July 7, Rheinmetall signed a letter of intent with Lockheed Martin to build the first ATACMS production facility outside the United States in UnterlĂĽss, Lower Saxony. Component and rocket-motor manufacturing is slated to begin as early as 2027, marking a shift away from pure armoured vehicles toward guided missiles and air defence. The move makes UnterlĂĽss a hub for transatlantic defence cooperation and underlines the structural change underway within the company.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?
That transformation is backed by an enormous buffer. Rheinmetall’s order backlog now stands at €73 billion, securing production capacity for more than five years. Management continues to forecast revenue growth of over 60% in the second quarter, even after the downward revision of the short-term order target. The group’s new Naval Systems division, meanwhile, remains engaged on existing programmes such as the FDB424 fleet service boat and is already positioning for future projects like the F127.
Yet the share price tells a harsher story. On Thursday, the stock fell 4.89% to €1,011.20, bringing the decline from the September 2025 all-time high of €1,995 to 46.71%. Year-to-date losses stand at 33.61%, and the market capitalisation has shrunk to around €51.8 billion. The technical picture is deeply negative: the RSI sits at 38.7, approaching oversold territory, while the stock trades 33.59% below its 200-day moving average. Thirty-day volatility of 69.71% and an annual figure near 71% are more typical of a high-risk biotech name than a DAX heavyweight.
Some fundamentals do offer support. The cabinet has proposed nearly €140 billion for defence in the 2027 federal budget, securing a financing baseline. Steady orders for artillery munitions for Ukraine and air-defence systems continue to flow. Nonetheless, the market is demanding proof that Rheinmetall's record backlog can be converted into actual cash flow rather than remaining a measure of political promise.
The period of automatic share-price gains on every "Zeitenwende" headline is over. Rheinmetall is now in a phase of painful but necessary normalisation — one in which a $18 billion naval rebuff and a halted frigate programme matter more than a historic missile deal, at least for the moment. Whether the stock stabilises will depend on how quickly the company can demonstrate that its NATO-anchored expansion is more than symbolic, and that the marine setbacks are exceptions rather than a pattern.
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