Rheinmetall's Steep Descent from Euphoria: Insider Buying and a Ukrainian Contract Test the €1,000 Floor
Published on 07/01/2026 at 09:22 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Armin Papperger has put €3 million of his own money on the line. The Rheinmetall CEO bought shares on June 25 at an average price of €954.62, a move that signals management's conviction that the market has gone too far in punishing the defense stock. That bet got an immediate assist from a fresh Ukrainian munitions order that helped push the shares back above the psychologically important €1,000 mark on Tuesday, closing at €1,002.00 for a 2.79% gain. Yet the rally comes against a backdrop of one of the steepest drawdowns in the company's recent history.
The stock's fall from grace has been brutal. From an all-time high of €1,995 in September 2025, Rheinmetall has shed nearly half its value, now trading at less than 51% of that peak. The year-to-date loss stands at 37.43%, and over twelve months the shares have dropped by nearly 42%. The catalyst for the latest leg down was the cancellation of the F126 frigate project, which raised doubts about how smoothly the company can scale its naval segment. While order books remain stuffed — including a new large-caliber artillery shell contract for Ukraine — the market has shifted its focus from pricing in super-growth to scrutinizing real-world execution.
That shift is visible in the charts. The 200-day moving average sits at €1,547, some 35% above the current price, a stark reminder of how far the stock has strayed from its trend. On June 25, the shares touched a new 52-week low of €902.50 before rebounding. The relative strength index hovers in the low 30s — around 33-34 — indicating that selling pressure has exhausted itself, though not yet signaling a definitive buy. Historically, such oversold readings have preceded technical bounces, but the stock remains deep in a medium-term downtrend.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?
The Ukrainian order provides a tangible counterweight to the F126 disappointment. Rheinmetall will supply a low five-digit quantity of 155-millimeter artillery shells, with delivery scheduled by early 2027. The contract value is in the high double-digit million euro range and will be booked in the current second quarter. Production will be handled by Expal Munitions, the Spanish subsidiary Rheinmetall acquired to expand its artillery capacity. The company aims to ramp up annual shell output to 1.5 million units by 2030. On the analyst front, DZ Bank has reiterated its buy rating with a €1,705 price target, implying roughly 70% upside from current levels.
For now, the €1,000 mark is acting as a support level, but the real test lies ahead. Rheinmetall's market capitalization of roughly €44 billion means it is no bargain-bin stock even after the correction. The company must demonstrate that its sprawling order backlog can be converted into cash and earnings efficiently. The half-year results in August will be the first major checkpoint. If the shares can hold the €1,000 line on a closing basis, the slow process of bottoming may continue. A decisive break below that level, however, would suggest this week's rebound was just a fleeting relief rally in a longer downtrend.
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