Rocket Lab’s $2.2 Billion Backlog Can’t Shield It From a Double Blow: SpaceX Swoon and Iridium Jitters
Published on 07/26/2026 at 00:10 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers don’t lie, but they also don’t tell the whole story. Rocket Lab’s stock closed at €56.40 on Friday, shedding 8.29% in a single session and pushing its monthly decline to nearly 25%. The company’s order book, meanwhile, sits at a record $2.2 billion, buoyed by 31 new launch contracts signed in the first quarter alone. The disconnect between price and performance has rarely been starker.
Two distinct forces are colliding to produce this selloff. The immediate trigger came from outside the company: SpaceX shares fell 5% on Friday, ahead of the 13th test flight of its Starship program, amid concerns that the company is diverting resources from its proven Falcon 9 platform toward the capital-intensive Starship project. Reports that SpaceX may stop offering dedicated Falcon 9 launches for external satellite operators by 2028 added to the unease. Rocket Lab, which reported no company-specific news that day, was swept up in the downdraft alongside Intuitive Machines and AST SpaceMobile — a classic sympathy move in a sector now tethered to a liquid benchmark after SpaceX’s public listing.
The second, more structural headwind is Rocket Lab’s planned $8 billion acquisition of Iridium Communications. Investors are fretting over dilution, higher debt loads, and the integration risks that come with folding a legacy satellite operator into a high-growth launch company. Morgan Stanley analyst Kristine Liwag, however, maintains a “Buy” rating and sees substantial upside from current levels, arguing that the strategic logic of vertical integration outweighs the near-term balance sheet concerns.
The technical picture reinforces the bearish mood. The stock now trades 57.85% below its 52-week high of €133.80 and sits well under its 200-day moving average of €67.36. The 14-day relative strength index has fallen to 30.8, a level that chartists typically flag as oversold. Yet the consensus analyst price target of €100.50 implies a 78.2% upside from Friday’s close — a gap that suggests the market is pricing in a far more pessimistic narrative than the fundamentals support.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rocket Lab?
Rocket Lab’s operating metrics tell a different story. The company recently secured a $266 million contract from the U.S. Space Force for suborbital launches through 2028, and management has raised its 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $850 million to $900 million. The Space Systems segment is steadily diversifying revenue away from pure launch services, giving the business a broader base. First-quarter revenue hit a record just above $200 million, up 63.5% year over year.
The next major catalyst arrives on August 10, 2026, when Rocket Lab reports second-quarter results after U.S. market close. Management has guided for revenue between $225 million and $240 million. A beat or a strong outlook would signal that growth remains intact despite the share price weakness.
Longer-term, the investment thesis hinges on the Neutron rocket, a medium-lift vehicle designed to compete for megaconstellation contracts. The first flight is slated for the fourth quarter of 2026, and progress on the Archimedes engine qualification or tank manufacturing could reignite investor interest during the earnings call.
Rocket Lab at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
On a 12-month basis, Rocket Lab shares are still up 37.56%, even after the recent rout. The year-to-date picture is a loss of 8.29%. For those focused on the operating business rather than daily price swings, the distance from the 52-week high looks less like a crash and more like a valuation gap — one the market is currently choosing to ignore while it waits for concrete milestones on Neutron and the Iridium integration.
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Rocket Lab Stock: New Analysis - 26 July
Fresh Rocket Lab information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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