Rocket Lab Stock: Investor Attention Returns to Neutron Rocket Progress

Rocket Lab USA shares are drawing renewed investor focus as developments in its Neutron rocket program take center stage. While a recent test anomaly briefly raised concerns, a tangible milestone has shifted sentiment back toward the company's execution capabilities. The critical issue for the market is not short-term price action, but whether management can adhere to its ambitious development timeline for this new launch vehicle.

From a chart perspective, the equity has been on a remarkable run but now shows signs of being overbought. The stock closed yesterday's session at $87.00, a level approximately 72% above its 200-day moving average. Over a twelve-month horizon, it has posted gains exceeding 200%, though it currently trades nearly 10% below its recent 52-week high of $96.30.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 85.1 signals a deeply overbought condition. Market observers are likely to view this combination of steep appreciation and extreme RSI as an indication that a near-term pullback is possible, even as the medium-term uptrend remains firmly intact.

A Visible Milestone: "Hungry Hippo" Fairing Arrives

The catalyst for the latest reassessment is the delivery of the large payload fairing—dubbed "Hungry Hippo" by the company—to Launch Complex 3 in Virginia. This component is essential for the Neutron rocket's future operational missions and represents a clearly visible step forward for the project.

This development arrives at a pivotal moment. On January 21, a hydrostatic pressure test resulted in the failure of a first-stage Neutron tank. While such tests are designed to probe structural limits, the incident initially created some uncertainty. Company leadership clarified that a replacement tank was already in production and that the event was a normal part of the engineering development cycle.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rocket Lab USA?

With the "Hungry Hippo" now on site, market focus is shifting back to operational progress. Investors are interpreting the combination of a framed standard test and the arrival of visible hardware as a signal that the core Neutron schedule remains on track.

Wide Disparity in Analyst Price Targets Reflects Sector Risk

Valuation opinions on Rocket Lab stock reveal a significant gap between bullish and more cautious analysts, mirroring the high-risk, high-reward profile typical of the space industry.

• Bank of America recently doubled its price target for Rocket Lab to $120.
• Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating with a $105 target, also projecting substantial upside.
• Goldman Sachs remains notably more conservative, with a price target of $69.

Trading at $87.00, the stock currently sits near the midpoint of this wide target range. It has performed strongly on a year-to-date basis, though it has yet to reclaim its 52-week peak.

Upcoming Catalysts: Earnings and a Crucial Neutron Update

Attention now turns to two closely linked events: upcoming financial results and a detailed update on the Neutron roadmap. Rocket Lab is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 26. The company has provided revenue guidance between $170 million and $180 million for the quarter, while analysts, on average, anticipate a loss per share of $0.08.

During the same earnings call, management has committed to providing an updated Neutron schedule. Three key points will be crucial for investors: progress on integrating the "Hungry Hippo" fairing, the status of the replacement first-stage tank, and any confirmation or adjustment to previously outlined milestones. The market's judgment on the stock's current valuation in the coming weeks will largely hinge on these factors.