SAP Faces Regulatory Relief as July 23 Earnings Test Looms
01.07.2026 - 08:26:15 | boerse-global.de
SAP is heading into a crucial mid-summer checkpoint with two very different stories unfolding at once: one in Brussels, where a potentially costly antitrust dispute may be heading for an exit ramp, and another in the market, where the share price remains stuck near its lowest levels of the year. The stock closed on Tuesday at 134.94 euro, barely above the 52-week low of 130.80 euro, and is down 33.20 percent since the start of the year.
The competition case could have carried a penalty of as much as ten percent of annual revenue, equivalent to around 3.4 billion euro on the basis of SAP’s 2024 figures. The European Commission is examining whether the company restricted competition in the market for ERP maintenance services. To head that off, SAP has submitted commitments designed to give customers more freedom in choosing maintenance providers and to make licensing terms more flexible. The Commission is now testing those pledges in a market review. If competitors and customers do not raise major objections, the case could be closed without sanctions.
Across the Atlantic, a separate action is also in play. Rival Celonis has filed a case in the US tied to similar allegations around SAP’s process-analysis software Signavio.
Investor unease has been amplified by the broader software debate. Jefferies analyst Charles Brennan described a “wall of worry” hanging over European software names. He trimmed his price target to 210 euro but kept a buy rating, arguing that the market has already discounted many of the risks. Berenberg sees fair value at 215 euro, Bernstein at 276 euro, while DZ Bank has recommended selling the shares since April. UBS analyst Michael Briest, meanwhile, expects further margin improvement in the second quarter, though at a slower pace than at the start of the year.
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The company is still pushing ahead with its transformation agenda. In June, SAP began rolling out Joule Studio 2.0, which allows corporate customers to build their own AI agents capable of carrying out complex business processes autonomously. That move is part of SAP’s shift from traditional software supplier toward an AI platform. At the end of June, the technology group FPT also confirmed its new Silver Partner status in the SAP PartnerEdge program, a relationship intended to speed up the deployment of cloud solutions for large European clients.
The operating picture has not been weak. In the first quarter of 2026, total revenue rose by about six percent to 9.56 billion euro, cloud revenue increased by 27 percent, and the operating margin reached 30 percent for the first time in 13 quarters. For the full year, SAP is targeting cloud revenue of between 25.8 billion euro and 26.2 billion euro, representing currency-adjusted growth of 23 to 25 percent.
Still, the market is focused less on what the company has delivered and more on whether the next phase of growth can hold up in the face of shifting sentiment around enterprise software in the AI era. Oracle’s plan to invest up to 95 billion US dollars in AI infrastructure has added to the pressure on the sector, with Salesforce and ServiceNow also coming under strain.
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SAP’s own share buyback programme has not provided much support so far. Since February 2026, the company has been repurchasing its own stock as part of a programme that can total up to ten billion euro and runs until the end of 2027. The current allocation stands at up to 2.6 billion euro. In the first tranche, SAP bought back around 16.3 million shares at an average price of 161.16 euro, well above the current quotation of 134.94 euro.
Technically, the chart remains fragile. The stock is trading about 26 percent below its 200-day average of 182.43 euro, and the RSI stands at 40.1, a weak reading but not yet an extreme one. The next decisive point is 23 July, when SAP will report second-quarter numbers. The Quiet Period remains in force until then, with no commentary allowed on revenue, margins or the full-year outlook. The half-year figures are scheduled for 22:05, followed by the analyst call at 23:00. The market will be watching the cloud backlog, which was last reported at 21.9 billion euro, and the operating margin for signs that the shares may finally be building a base around the 130 euro mark.
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