SAP Resolves EU Antitrust Probe, Expands Buyback, as Stock Hovers Near Floor
Published on 07/10/2026 at 06:43 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SAP is deploying a multi-pronged strategy to steady its ship — settling a European antitrust case without a fine, buying back its own shares at a furious pace, and snapping up a data analytics specialist to fortify its AI ambitions. Yet none of these moves has managed to lift the stock from its prolonged funk. Shares closed on Thursday at €138.32, a whisker above the 52-week low of €130.80 reached on June 25, and have lost 31.52% since the start of the year.
The technical picture underscores the strain. The stock now trades 5.16% below its 50-day moving average and a hefty 22.79% under the 200-day line. The 30-day volatility reading stands at 45.34%, reflecting elevated anxiety among holders, while the relative strength index of 45.7 sits in neutral territory — indicating neither panicked selling nor a clear oversold condition.
The European Commission closed a year-long antitrust investigation into SAP’s on-premise maintenance and support practices after the company offered legally binding commitments for the next decade. SAP avoided any fine and admitted no wrongdoing, but the remedies are substantial. Reinstatement fees for customers who had dropped support are abolished, back-payment charges are capped at 50% for six months, and clients now have the right to split their ERP systems and contract third-party support for individual modules. Licenses and maintenance contracts can also be terminated more easily in cases of insolvency, mass layoffs, or divestitures. An independent trustee will oversee compliance.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
The increased flexibility arrives as SAP faces a critical transition — the forced migration of its vast ECC customer base to the cloud-native S/4HANA platform. Mainstream support for ECC ends in December 2027, with extended maintenance only running through 2030. Yet, as of late 2024, just 39% of the roughly 35,000 ECC clients had even acquired an S/4HANA license. Analysts cite complex data migrations, integration risks, and high upfront costs as key obstacles, warning that the upgrade amounts to a full business transformation — a prospect many decision-makers are still reluctant to embrace.
Against this difficult backdrop, SAP’s board has doubled down on share repurchases. The current buyback tranche, worth up to €2.6 billion, is scheduled to run through July 2026. With the stock down 47.95% from its 52-week high of €265.75 set on July 17, 2025, the program acts as a clear statement of perceived undervaluation — though it has done little to arrest the slide so far.
On a separate front, SAP completed the acquisition of Dremio on July 6, 2026. The “open data lakehouse” platform is designed to unify data sources for artificial intelligence, allowing customers to link SAP data with external systems without laborious data movement. The technology is expected to boost the capabilities of SAP’s AI assistant, Joule, which is being increasingly embedded into core ERP processes.
All eyes now turn to July 23, when SAP reports its second-quarter and first-half results. Analysts forecast revenue of approximately €9.85 billion, up roughly 9% year-over-year, with earnings per share jumping about 20% to €1.76. More important than the topline growth, however, will be the trajectory of the cloud backlog and evidence that management’s recent cost-cutting discipline is feeding through to improved margins. A strong showing could begin to rebuild investor confidence and provide the catalyst the stock so badly needs.
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