SAP’s 33% Year-to-Date Drop Masks Record Cloud Orders — EU Settlement Hopes and Goldman's Margin Trim Weigh on Sentiment
30.06.2026 - 10:01:41 | boerse-global.de
SAP shares have lost nearly half their value over the past twelve months, yet the company’s operational engine is humming. A record cloud backlog and an aggressive buyback programme are failing to shield investors from a perfect storm of external shocks: Oracle’s mammoth capital expenditure plans, rising rate jitters, and a European Commission investigation that still hangs over the stock.
The stock recently traded at €136.22, just above a 52-week low of €130.80 set on June 25. Year-to-date the decline stands at roughly 33%, with 30-day volatility elevated at 44%. The rout accelerated after Oracle disclosed plans to spend up to $95 billion in fiscal 2027 on infrastructure, and a subsequent profit warning from Accenture compounded the sector-wide sell-off. Analysts describe the damage as “collateral” rather than a reflection of SAP’s own performance.
Brussels compromise offers risk reduction
SAP has submitted a proposal to the European Commission aimed at ending a long-running antitrust dispute over software maintenance practices. The core allegation is that the company systematically blocked rivals from servicing its enterprise software. A formal conviction could have triggered a fine of up to 10% of annual global revenue — a multi-billion euro hit. The new offer includes more flexible licensing that would allow customers to choose third-party maintenance providers. Market observers view the move as a significant risk reduction, though the Commission has yet to accept the terms.
Margin pressure from AI and cloud investments
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs trimmed its gross margin forecast for the second half of 2026 to 72.8% from 73.3%, citing heavy upfront spending on cloud and AI infrastructure. The acquisition of data specialist Dremio is expected to close in the third quarter of 2026, and capital commitments for projects such as Prior Labs are weighing on operating margins before cloud scale can offset the drag. Despite the downgrade, Goldman maintained a buy rating on the stock.
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Buyback and record backlog provide a floor
SAP has been buying back stock aggressively since January 2026, repurchasing roughly 16.3 million shares at an average price of €161.16 — totalling approximately €2.6 billion of the €10 billion programme that runs through the end of 2027. The buyback has provided some support, but the market’s focus is on the cost side.
First-quarter results, released on April 23, painted a contrasting picture. Cloud revenue surged 27% to nearly €6 billion, while the cloud backlog hit a record €21.9 billion, up 25% year-on-year. Earnings per share rose to €1.66 from €1.52 a year earlier. The cloud backlog and cloud gross margin are the two metrics investors will scrutinise when SAP reports half-year figures on July 23.
Analyst targets remain upbeat
Several analysts argue the sell-off has created a buying opportunity. UBS’s Michael Briest expects margins to improve in the second quarter and holds a €205 price target. Berenberg’s Nay Soe Naing, who sees a historically low valuation in the sector, targets €215. Both analysts maintain buy recommendations, even as macro headwinds persist.
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Quiet period and EU AI Act add uncertainty
SAP is currently in a quiet period ahead of its Q2 report, meaning management cannot comment on market developments. The report on July 23 will show whether cloud growth can absorb the margin strain from AI-related spending. From August, the EU AI Act imposes stricter compliance requirements for high-risk applications, raising the risk that product launches could be delayed precisely when AI features are the strongest selling point.
With interest rate signals from the Federal Reserve leaning toward hikes rather than cuts — Goldman expects no easing before 2027 — growth stocks remain structurally under pressure. SAP’s combination of a strong operational story and heavy near-term investment leaves investors waiting for a catalyst that can close the gap between the share price and the company’s underlying momentum.
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