SAP's Data-Lakehouse Deal and Dividend Payout Mask a Stock Still Nursing Deep Wounds

SAP is making big moves on multiple fronts — acquiring a data infrastructure specialist, broadening its AI strategy, and handing shareholders a fatter dividend cheque — yet the share price remains stubbornly adrift. The Walldorf-based software giant’s stock closed Wednesday at €147.70, a level that leaves it roughly 46% below its 52-week peak of €271.60 and nursing a year-to-date decline of nearly 27%.

A €2.9 Billion Payout, but Little Cheer

The annual general meeting approved a dividend of €2.50 per share for fiscal 2025, representing a 6.4% increase on the prior year. The total payout amounts to roughly €2.88 billion, with distribution scheduled for May 8, 2026. But the ex-dividend adjustment did little to lift sentiment — the stock now trades well beneath its 200-day moving average of €198.90.

Dremio Acquisition Targets the Real AI Bottleneck

The more consequential news centres on SAP’s planned acquisition of Dremio, a US-based data-lakehouse platform provider. The technology allows companies to query data across disparate systems without physically moving or reformatting it, effectively eliminating time-consuming ETL processes. SAP intends to embed Dremio into its Business Data Cloud, creating a native Apache Iceberg platform designed to blend SAP and non-SAP data seamlessly for AI workloads.

Chief Technology Officer Philipp Herzig framed the rationale bluntly: enterprise AI fails not because of weak models, but because of unprepared data. Fragmented datasets remain a systemic industry problem. By combining Dremio’s open catalogue — built on Apache Polaris — with the recently unveiled SAP Knowledge Graph, the company aims to build an ecosystem capable of feeding agentic AI applications with the business context they require.

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The transaction is expected to close in the third quarter of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals.

Breaking the Cloud-Only AI Doctrine

In a parallel strategic shift, SAP is opening its AI capabilities to customers running on-premise systems — a departure from the previous cloud-only stance. Chief Executive Christian Klein is also moving the pricing model from user-based fees to consumption-based billing, directly addressing investor criticism of the existing SaaS structure.

The Dremio deal, alongside the earlier acquisition of Reltio, is designed to ensure AI agents can access clean data even in hybrid infrastructure environments. The message is clear: SAP’s AI proposition is no longer a cloud-exclusive privilege.

A Healthcare Bet with Fresenius

SAP is also deepening its sector-specific ambitions. Together with Fresenius, it is investing in Munich-based startup Avelios Medical, which employs roughly 200 people and already works with five university hospitals. The goal is a cloud-based, AI-powered hospital information system for the European market. For Fresenius Helios, which operates more than 80 clinics, the timing is urgent — support for its existing SAP system ends in 2030.

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Solid Fundamentals, but a Market That’s Not Buying

The operational picture remains robust. In the first quarter of 2026, currency-adjusted cloud revenues climbed 27% to €5.96 billion, while total revenue rose 12% to €9.56 billion. The short-term cloud order backlog stands at €21.9 billion. A consensus of 27 analysts sees a median price target of €216.48, implying upside of roughly 47% from current levels.

Whether the Dremio acquisition, the AI pricing overhaul, or the healthcare partnership can accelerate that revaluation will become clearer in the quarters ahead — particularly once SAP demonstrates how quickly the consumption-based model translates into revenue. For now, the market is watching, waiting, and pricing in a healthy dose of scepticism.

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