SAP’s High-Stakes Earnings: AI Study Points to Promise, but Cloud Growth Must Deliver
Published on 07/16/2026 at 13:18 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SAP shares are hovering around €137,44, a hair above their 52-week low of €130,80, as the software giant enters the final stretch before its second-quarter earnings release on July 23, 2026. The stock has lost 47,67 percent over the past twelve months and 31,96 percent since the start of the year. For a company still valued at nearly €160 billion, the market’s patience is wearing thin — and the next few days will either restore confidence or deepen the sell-off.
The cloud backlog, which disappointed investors in January when growth came in at just 16 percent versus the expected 26 percent, remains the single most important metric. That miss triggered a sharp sell-off, and ever since, the market has been demanding a return to more predictable expansion rates. SAP is now in a quiet period, barred from commenting on its business. The July 23 earnings call will be the first chance to show whether the Dremio acquisition — closed on July 6 — and the “Autonomous Enterprise” strategy are gaining traction.
A Study Offers Ammunition
Just days before the earnings blackout, SAP released a study conducted with Oxford Economics that provides a fresh narrative for the stock. Global ROI on AI projects has risen to 21 percent, up from 16 percent a year earlier, and German companies are seeing an even higher average return of 24 percent. The research focuses on “Agentic AI” — autonomous AI agents capable of handling tasks independently — which SAP is embedding into its core cloud processes. The potential payoff is significant: the study projects that Agentic AI could generate up to $17,6 million in ROI per company over the next two years.
Yet the study also exposes a governance gap that could stall adoption. While 83 percent of executives surveyed see the potential of Agentic AI as high or transformative, only 3 percent feel fully prepared to deploy it. Just 12 percent of companies have effective AI governance in place. SAP is betting that its more than 50 specialized AI agents and the forthcoming “Agent Hub” will overcome these hurdles, but the data suggests many customers are still struggling with fundamentals.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Bullish Signals: Efficiency Gains and Cloud Migration
On the positive side, the study points to accelerating real-world impact. AI already supports 30 percent of operational tasks across surveyed companies, and that share is expected to rise to 48 percent within two years. In pilot projects, AI agents have slashed the time needed to produce monthly financial reports from twelve hours to two or three. If SAP can turn such efficiency gains into standard features of its cloud portfolio, the incentive for legacy customers to migrate could grow significantly.
Customer satisfaction among early adopters is high: 69 percent of business leaders are already satisfied with their AI ROI, and in Saudi Arabia, 91 percent of organizations report that their AI projects meet or exceed expectations. The Dremio acquisition, which enables real-time data analytics without complex data conversion, removes another barrier to AI adoption. Combined with SAP’s stated target of roughly €10 billion in free cash flow for 2026, these factors underpin a recovery case that analysts at UBS and Berenberg have laid out in their models.
Bearish Headwinds: Data Quality, Security, and Margin Pressure
The bull case, however, faces serious operational risks. The study shows that 73 percent of companies struggle with incomplete or poor-quality data, and 79 percent have already experienced delays or errors that forced them to restart AI projects. Cyber security adds another layer of concern: SAP’s latest patch day featured 16 security updates, including critical vulnerabilities in NetWeaver and Commerce Cloud with CVSS scores as high as 9,9. Past incidents like the Bun-Stealer attack on SAP packages may make customers cautious about integrating autonomous agents into sensitive processes.
The market is also worried about the so-called “SaaS-pocalypse” — the idea that powerful AI models could erode the moats of traditional software vendors, enabling companies to build custom solutions rather than buying expensive licenses. Meanwhile, heavy infrastructure spending on AI transformation is squeezing margins, a problem that has already plagued competitor Oracle. And 69 percent of companies report that employees use unauthorized “Shadow AI,” which could slow official adoption of SAP’s agentic tools and keep the expected growth spurt from materializing.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Technical Picture: A Binary Event Looms
The stock is trading 22,26 percent below its 200-day moving average of €176,80, and the 30-day volatility stands at 34,63 percent — unusually high even for SAP. The relative strength index of 45,4 suggests the market has yet to pick a direction. If the July 23 numbers confirm a further slowdown in cloud backlog growth, the next stop could be fresh lows below the €130,80 floor. But if management reaffirms the full-year outlook and presents a convincing roadmap for Agentic AI, a relief rally toward the 50-day moving average of €144,83 is plausible.
Ultimately, the Oxford Economics study gives SAP a powerful story to tell — but earnings will determine whether the story holds water. The market needs to see the cloud backlog accelerate and hear a credible plan for the second half of 2026, including progress on a restructuring program that has been running since 2024. The next few sessions will reveal whether SAP’s AI narrative is enough to arrest a stock that has lost nearly half its value in one year.
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SAP Stock: New Analysis - 16 July
Fresh SAP information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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