SAP’s July Pivot: EU Settlement, Dremio Deal, and Divergent Analyst Calls Converge Ahead of Quarterly Report
Published on 07/18/2026 at 16:53 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The German software giant is entering its most consequential reporting period in years with a flurry of corporate developments that have yet to translate into share price momentum. SAP’s stock ended Friday at €138.50, a 1.81% decline, leaving it just 5.89% above the 52-week low of €130.80 touched on June 25. Since the start of the year, the equity has lost more than a third of its value, sliding 33.53%.
Two significant overhangs have recently been resolved. On July 9, the European Commission formally closed its antitrust probe into SAP’s maintenance and support practices for on-premise software, with the company committing to forgo so-called reactivation fees for a decade. A few days earlier, on July 6, SAP completed the acquisition of Dremio, a data-lakehouse platform provider, as part of its push to accelerate the “Agentic AI” strategy. The deal aims to improve real-time integration of third-party data into SAP’s ecosystem — a key piece of the monetisation puzzle that investors are demanding.
Yet these milestones have done little to shift the bearish tone. The stock remains 4.30% below its 50-day moving average of €144.72, a technical signal that short-term momentum is still tilted to the downside.
Analyst Camps Diverge Sharply
The divide between sell-side and independent valuation perspectives is widening. UBS analyst Michael Briest cut his price target for SAP from €205 to €164 on July 15, while retaining a Buy rating. Briest cited the “high complexity” of monetising AI agents and a broader valuation adjustment as reasons for the reduction. The move reflects mounting market skepticism over whether billions of euros in AI investment can translate into measurable revenue in the near term.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Just two days later, Morningstar analyst Rob Hales reaffirmed a fair value estimate of €265 — nearly double the current trading level — and maintained a Buy recommendation. Hales, however, acknowledged headwinds on the demand side, warning that corporate IT budgets could be redirected due to the Iran conflict and elevated energy costs, potentially delaying spending on SAP software.
The 22% consensus growth expected for SAP’s cloud order backlog will be a critical test of which analyst view proves more accurate. The numbers are due after the US market close on July 23, with SAP releasing second-quarter and first-half results at 22:05 MESZ.
Cloud Migration Traction and Operational Housekeeping
Under the radar, SAP is seeing encouraging signals in its core cloud business. On July 2, the company and IBM jointly reported accelerating customer momentum in migrations from legacy ECC systems to S/4HANA Private Cloud. That trend supports the higher-margin recurring revenue model that analysts are watching closely.
On July 14, SAP issued its monthly patch day, releasing 16 security updates, including fixes for three critical vulnerabilities in NetWeaver, Commerce Cloud, and AppRouter. While not a market-moving event, the routine update underscores the ongoing maintenance required across the product portfolio.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
A longer-term governance change was set in motion at the annual general meeting in May, when former Deutsche Telekom CEO René Obermann was elected to the supervisory board. He is slated to take over the chairmanship from Pekka Ala-Pietilä in 2027, a transition that could influence strategic oversight of the AI agenda in the years ahead.
Earnings Season as a Bellwether
For now, all eyes are on the July 23 release. The quiet period has left investors piecing together signals from analyst moves, regulatory outcomes, and M&A activity. The Dremio integration and the EU settlement remove two uncertainties, but the central question remains: can SAP demonstrate that its cloud and AI investments are generating tangible returns? The answer, when it comes, will likely determine whether the stock can break out of its recent narrow range near the lows or extend its slide.
Ad
SAP Stock: New Analysis - 18 July
Fresh SAP information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
